I just got en email from Santansolar saying that panel prices are going to go up and that I should buy more panels now before they go up.
Also saw this article :
Freight costs, which represent around 4% of a solar module’s total costs, are increasing on trade lines between the Far East and the US West Coast, Northern Europe, and Mediterranean region.
pv-magazine-usa.com
Any thoughts? Should we listen to santansolar or are they just trying to get more money out of us?
The claim is "freight cost is edging closer to pandemic levels". It may well be so, but I'm not convinced this will cause large price increases. They themselves say freight accounts for 4% in panel costs.
However there are local considerations. If I was in the US and I got a good deal around 20c a Watt I would buy (if I was looking for more panels). Why? Because of that 50% tariff. I think panels sold at such prices could've been imported last year when the tariff was 25% (correct me if I'm wrong - I'm not from the US). They'll run out eventually. So in short I propose the market has not adjusted to new tariffs yet.
In Europe it is opposite. Due to many countries switching to net billing from net metering the number of new installs has fallen through the floor. Unless this policy is reversed or at least minimum feed in prices are put into law the demand is not recovering. I heard there is enough PV stock in EU warehouses to last 1.5 years at previous sales levels and many distributors have long term contracts so more panels are being sent to them from China.
Adding to this our current Polish "heat pump scandal" - for those that don't know 500 million euros of local subsidies were given out in Poland, a large percentage of which went to heat pump seller/installers that would tell people "hey, we'll install a heat pump for you for free in your house - removing old heat source of course". Then they would install a substandard heat pump that doesn't even meet it's parameters in a building completely inadequate for it. In uninsulated old buildings with crappy windows and radiators. The "client" then gets electric bill few months down the line for 10x expected. A client is in an even worse position if the installer collected the subsidy and went bankrupt without doing the install as the client is on the hook for returning the subsidy, but that's a separate type of scam.
How could they sell substandard (pool warming) heat pumps claiming they have great parameters for our climate? The answer is an EU (German) "pay and we don't ask any questions" certification body like Keymark. The law says you need an EU cert. So they got a cert that you get when you pay and submit documents. No one verifies them.
An EU cert authority cannot be discriminated selectively so all heat pump importers were supposed to publish "certification lab testing reports" before April this year. This was extended to 10th of June and now everyone who bought a heat pump recently (after last winter) is waiting with great anxiety. Is my heat pump one of the shitty ones? Or will my seller publish that lab report?
Why am I talking about heat pumps here? Because in Europe (especially in Poland and few surrounding countries) the companies that sell PV panels usually sell heat pumps too. Now both of their revenue streams dried up to the point where their deliveries are not being collected from the ports (I heard that in an interview with an "industry representative" few days ago).
So in short. Not in the EU. Panel prices will continue to fall until companies just fold.
and an asteroid COULD wipe us out tomorrow.
