4 X class solar flares to impact this weekend.

[Crowz]

I spent months trying to convince people the world wasn't going to end with the y2k stuff. Even people I knew in the computer field for years were determined chips would go bonkers every time they were turned on after 2000.

I didn't even bother staying up on new years that year. Wife woke me up sometime around 1am to let me know the world didn't end

 

[AlaskanNoob]

I spent months trying to convince people the world wasn't going to end with the y2k stuff. Even people I knew in the computer field for years were determined chips would go bonkers every time they were turned on after 2000.

I didn't even bother staying up on new years that year. Wife woke me up sometime around 1am to let me know the world didn't end

Is it your view that our current position in the solar cycle doesn't present an actual threat to the grid (and therefore humanity if it goes down in a big way), just as you were convinced computer code pre-2000 wasn't an issue?

 

[Crowz]

Is it your view that our current position in the solar cycle doesn't present an actual threat to the grid (and therefore humanity if it goes down in a big way), just as you were convinced computer code pre-2000 wasn't an issue?

The code part I'm referring to (which is why I said CHIPS not code) was the morons saying microwave ovens were going to explode and your furnace was going to burn your house down.

The solar part that has caught my interest was the maps which seem to indicate only those closest to the poles have all that much to worry about. Alabama for instance might get some pretty lights in the sky while the northern states are popping pop corn on the utility lines

That's the gist I'm getting from what Ive read so far.

 

[AlaskanNoob]

I'm not a bright man, but it seems obvious to me that the sun does in fact present a serious threat to our power grid. And a solar event could have a staggering impact on humanity. As in massive death. Whether that threat has increased or not due to things beyond my comprehension rotating and magnetic fields and 6000 year cycles and such, I have no idea. My gut feeling is yes, but I don't know.

Yes, we're all aware that certain forces and governments routinely lie and drum up fear. That does not mean all threats are false. We psychologically would like to believe they are especially when it's something this massive and we're so powerless to combat it. But it doesn't make all threats fake news propaganda.

Seems to me there is a real chance, who knows how much, that a solar event could have a massive impact on the planet beyond Starlink interruptions and cool photos, especially if the generator supply issue is as this guy seems to think it is.

For those of us off grid, we might survive a bit longer with shorter wires, but that depends on many things and it won't be pretty for anybody. Few of us have all the things we need.

I'm trying to figure out if a CME can produce E1 fields like an EMP that targets electronics that aren't on a long wire. Apparently it can if it's really big. If that happened, it would be bad beyond comprehension. Just a bad CME that took down the grid would be bad enough as people struggled to heat and cool and get food and medicine and travel and such without power.

At any rate, it's clear to me we're not talking about Y2K here.

 

[Crowz]

The y2k reference was a response to Supervstech's post that is above mine but on the previous page so I guess it looks like I started talking about y2k stuff for no reason.

 

[skyking1]

@AlaskanNoob The sun has been doing this since forever. We figured out how to detect and measure it when Carrington happened. Since the grid has existed the operators have been finding out the hard way what makes it vulnerable and they have been actively patching it up as they bring the grid forward. I'm not giving it a single thought. There is too much real stuff to do to waste time with endless what-ifs.
Just a little over 100 years ago nobody had power or worried about it. if you are off grid in AK, your best move is to live more like folks did 120 years ago and dry your foods and build root cellars and live passively, rather than bring the lower 48 tech dependency with you.
You can heat directly with solar that has nothing to do with high tech. Supplement that with wood in the extreme cold.

 

[Checkthisout]

Forgive me but frying the whole grid?

That doesn't seem like a reasonable fear.


Some equipment damage, sure. But that can be fixed pretty easily.

At no time in history were we more safe than we are now.

 

[skyking1]

I agree in the sense that the system gets more robust rather than less. I disagree when I consider how dependent people seem to be on every last little bit of tech, and you practically have to beg somebody to put the !#%^^% smart phone down and have a nice social family dinner. It just fries my transistors!!

 

[Checkthisout]

I agree in the sense that the system gets more robust rather than less. I disagree when I consider how dependent people seem to be on every last little bit of tech, and you practically have to beg somebody to put the !#%^^% smart phone down and have a nice social family dinner. It just fries my transistors!!

It's an opportunity to stand out.

Like Michael Gross did in Tremors.

 

[Supervstech]

It's an opportunity to stand out.

Like Michael Gross did in Tremors.

Broke into the wrong rec room didnt ya !

I want that double barrel weapon!

 

[skyking1]

Hey don't short sell Reba!!

 

[Supervstech]

Hey don't short sell Reba!!

Love it when she shouts magazine, locks it in, empties it, switches to pump shotgun, then switches to a pair of revolvers...

 

[JRH]

When off grid, what do you do for power when your inverter gets blown up by CME or lightning?

I unplugged my RV ( home) from solar . I plugged into the grid..

if somthing occurs , I will call the poco and tell em to come fix their shit …as it’s not working…

Then I switched off my PV and disconnected interconnected parts.

I built this system to be able to do this easily in under 2 min…I do it every time there is imminent big lightning storms nearby….it’s simple… it’s not perfect but it’s miles ahead of doing nothing.

It will cost me about 10;dollars to switch to grid for a couple of days.. who cares.

I am totally new to the SUN stirring up trouble from outer space BUT I’m a veteran to what lightning surges can do…been thru many …

I use risk/ reward ratios often i life …..particularly if I know ZERO about the facts in the risk equation nor the possibility’s of of the situation……..e.g. a CME event ……..

If I didn’t have a grid back up I would simple disconnect solar and run off the smallest genset that I have that would feed the RV ,and see where it all goes.

 

[Brett V]

ha ha, my company had about 200 of us on-staff at the time when Y2K happened - we are a networking company - we all got a Y2K care basket with blankets and flashlights, they had the buildings locked down, an we were all being paid quadrupal time - It was great to make in an 8 hour shift what I would make in 4 days.

As midnight rolled past London - nothing.... New York - nothing... Chicago/Dallas - Nothing... wait, a router rebooted... oh, not related since it had rebooted 3 other times the day before... when we got to Denver and Nothing they said if you aren't normally on shift now everyone go home. I was normally on shift so I got to keep collecting the extra pay.

I spent Y2K sitting on my ass at troop B headquarters of the PA state police “in case something happened”. As if I was going to be able to do anything if it did.

 

[JoeHam]

I’ve still got solar, radios, antennas etc. plugged in and running fine.

On another note, this observation is from someone on a radio forum I’m active on :

“Those of you who have solar eclipse glasses left over from last month's eclipse might want to take them out to have a look at the Sun. I did and I could actually see that massive sunspot associated with current geomagnetic storm on the lower edge of the solar disc at about the 6 o'clock position.”

 

[Hedges]

I'm trying to figure out if a CME can produce E1 fields like an EMP that targets electronics that aren't on a long wire. Apparently it can if it's really big.

I think CME is slow, while nuke can drive very rapid separation of charges, therefore high frequency.

Forgive me but frying the whole grid?

That doesn't seem like a reasonable fear.

Some equipment damage, sure. But that can be fixed pretty easily.

The claim is low frequency induces near DC in powerlines and transformers, then the grid generators supply power to burn them out. If protected by fuses or breakers, that should be avoided. Long distance power lines twist, which should limit differential mode DC. There could be high common mode voltage leading to arc and insulation breakdown.

CME, we could "just" shut off the grid until it passes. Must less time to bring it back up than to manufacture and replace many transformers.
EMP, could potentially have 20 minutes warning.

Then there is electronics and networking. Hospital unable to access records due to hack, what about damaged hardware? Once we have intelligent control systems, if they go down we're in deep

I spent months trying to convince people the world wasn't going to end with the y2k stuff. Even people I knew in the computer field for years were determined chips would go bonkers every time they were turned on after 2000.

Probably the greatest damage of Y2K was that software you didn't renew the license for? It started working again.


Or, was it that the computer & software upgrade cycle got synchronized across the market, resulting in a boom and bust cycle?
(I sure felt rich during the boom!)

 

[wpns]

Long distance power lines twist

I keep hearing this, but every high tension power line I’ve ever seen has individual strands running in parallel next to each other from tower to tower.

Twisting the individual aluminum current-carrying strands around the steel strength member won’t cancel the voltage in that one strand.

 

[OM617YOTA]

Anyone know if we're supposed to get another good shot at Aurora Borealis tonight? Debating staying up again, or setting an alarm for much earlier than usual tomorrow, while it's still dark.

 

[Hedges]

By "Twist" I mean they have insulators holding the three phases (often in a physical Delta arrangement), and as you drive down the road you will observe they periodically change places. That is, the 3 wires are "twisted".

So they form a loop, and EM wave or magnetic field induces a voltage in them, but after some miles they trade places and the opposite voltage is induced.

Oh, you're on an island. Not very long transmission lines there!
But even Hawaii was big enough to have interesting effects from Starfish Prime.

 

[AlaskanNoob]

@AlaskanNoob The sun has been doing this since forever. We figured out how to detect and measure it when Carrington happened. Since the grid has existed the operators have been finding out the hard way what makes it vulnerable and they have been actively patching it up as they bring the grid forward. I'm not giving it a single thought. There is too much real stuff to do to waste time with endless what-ifs.
Just a little over 100 years ago nobody had power or worried about it. if you are off grid in AK, your best move is to live more like folks did 120 years ago and dry your foods and build root cellars and live passively, rather than bring the lower 48 tech dependency with you.
You can heat directly with solar that has nothing to do with high tech. Supplement that with wood in the extreme cold.

I believe we did not have the technology to detect the Carrington Event at the time and today we still miss about a third of CMEs from what I understand. You're right that the sun has been doing this since forever, but humanity has not been this technologically dependent. Humanity today is massively dependent on technology, so if that technology is disrupted as some suggest is possible, it will be a massive issue that will affect everybody in very significant ways. As far as the grid being patched up, others dispute that and I am skeptical of that claim given the routine failures of the infrastructure during normal operations in the summer and winter.

My off grid situation in Alaska won't change any of this larger picture, nor will any steps I take, it will be far bigger than what I've personally done or not. We will be able to meet our basic needs without electricity, minus all the uncertainty that comes from the massive changes to the population at large. Of course we'll take steps to mitigate the risk to our technological investments as best we can.