Flat roof installation in Netherlands - considering glass-glass, bifacial, manufacturer, dimensions

[SeaGal]

I've already requested the supplier to provide IQ8HC microinverters instead of IQ8AC, so I guess everything's primed and ready to go now!

thanks for the update!

Optimizers plus a string inverter will max out your power at 9.68kw, plus be much cheaper.

I guess you haven't read the whole thread - I suggested that right back in post #2, but for the reasons discussed in the thread, the OP wants micro-inverters.

Can RSD be "DIY-able" using...

OP is in Europe - we don't have RSD requirements in UK or (AFAIAA) any of Europe..... yet.... thank goodness

 

[frasere2]

thanks for the update!


I guess you haven't read the whole thread - I suggested that right back in post #2, but for the reasons discussed in the thread, the OP wants micro-inverters.


OP is in Europe - we don't have RSD requirements in UK or (AFAIAA) any of Europe..... yet.... thank goodness

Nice to agree then Again, I have no idea why someone would overspend on microinverters to get less power. Sets your payback back 1-2 years.

 

[Bob in Tucson]

Nice to agree then Again, I have no idea why someone would overspend on microinverters to get less power. Sets your payback back 1-2 years.

One reason, as mentioned above, is that Enphase microinverters carry a 25-year warranty, at least in the US. I think it's fair to assume that most string inverters would need to replaced once during that 25-year period.

If you're only planning to use the array for 10-15 years, then that's a different calculus.

 

[frasere2]

One reason, as mentioned above, is that Enphase microinverters carry a 25-year warranty, at least in the US. I think it's fair to assume that most string inverters would need to replaced once during that 25-year period.

If you're only planning to use the array for 10-15 years, then that's a different calculus.

I see. However, I don't see anyone using a solar system for 25 years and never replacing anything. The enphase communication kits only have 5 year warranties. Plus, there might just be even better advances in 10 years. All that said, the best way to improve ROI is to keep your total cost to install low. Eg, looking around, I realize I overpaid for my panels. .20/watt is the new target price for a pallet of panels and I paid closer to .50/watt. Microinverters are just too expensive for the power they put out (max 380w).

 

[SeaGal]

Enphase microinverters carry a 25-year warranty, at least in the US

We should have a vote thread on who thinks Enphase will be in business in 25 years

I got the impression that Enphase systems need to talk to back-end servers to keep working, but I could be wrong there. If that were the case it would be a concern to me.

 

[OffGridForGood]

Seem

We should have a vote thread on who thinks Enphase will be in business in 25 years

I got the impression that Enphase systems need to talk to back-end servers to keep working, but I could be wrong there. If that were the case it would be a concern to me.

Seems the Stock market junkies love it, "strong buy" recommendations are common.
Typical finance types know nothing about the technology, all they see are $$$ signs.
If rapid PV growth continues and supports strong demand for Enphase, they will be right.

 

[SeaGal]

Seems the Stock market junkies love it

You say that, but only a month or so ago...

Enphase Energy will lay off roughly 10% of workforce as part of restructuring plan

The company's stock is down 53% this year as high interest rates have depressed demand.

www.cnbc.com

 

[OffGridForGood]

You say that, but only a month or so ago...

Enphase Energy will lay off roughly 10% of workforce as part of restructuring plan

The company's stock is down 53% this year as high interest rates have depressed demand.

www.cnbc.com

I just parrot what the SM is chatting about, I have zero interest in their stock or their products(!) lol.
A Company with a poor Q4 showing will do things to cut short term costs (gotta show the investors some action) - ie labour is an easy one if sales are down and inventories are high. Ride on that inventory while they automate parts of the production process to eliminate costly labour inputs for future upturn in sales.
All indications appear to show rapid PV growth in N.America. This likely affects how those Stock Market types see the future for Enphase.

edit: and remember for SM types, those "53% drop" in stock prices are opportunities...if they are short term dips.

 

[Hedges]

Layoffs? Stock market junkies love those! Higher profits!

 

[OffGridForGood]

Years ago my company worked at a gold mining site, the mining company had 7 or 8 active gold mines across five countries.
One day the mine staff are all freaking out, one of those 7-8 mines had a flood, and appeared was going to be shuttered permanently.
The mining co stock price dropped about 65% in a week.
I told my staff - if you want to make some money, barrow what you can and buy all the stock you can afford. Or don't, it is up to you.
Three months later the stock price was 90% back to normal. A year later that flooded mine was their top producer and the stock price was better than ever.
Stock Market types are never technical people, and they have a tendancy to over-react, in both directions.

 

[frasere2]

We should have a vote thread on who thinks Enphase will be in business in 25 years

I got the impression that Enphase systems need to talk to back-end servers to keep working, but I could be wrong there. If that were the case it would be a concern to me.

Anyone banking on a warranty for 25 years is not in touch with reality, for any product. In all likelihood, the company will be out of business or sold. In 5 years the technology will be outdated, so they will not have the existing model any more. I don't know what the warranty looks like, but I imagine you have to pay for part or all of the difference for the upgrade to the new product. Keep your upfront costs low, then you're ROI will be high, even with replacements.

As for the company, after years of monster short positions, the company took off about 3-4 years ago, then share price got cut by over 2/3rds. I owned it for much of that time.

 

[NeoX]

I guess you haven't read the whole thread - I suggested that right back in post #2, but for the reasons discussed in the thread, the OP wants micro-inverters.

Indeed. @frasere2, read from this post onwards. The IQ8HC will max out when the panels are operating at 86.3% of their efficiency. First, they'll never operate at 100% efficiency, and probably closer to 80-90% maximum given their orientation. Second, they degrade over time, so even if there is any excess above the microinverters' limit, this will likely be temporary per the degradation graph after some years. The effect on the ROI therefore will be reduced. That's my qualitative assessment anyway. I haven't crunched any numbers on this, but the numbers seem roughly in the ballpark enough to not need to.

As for all the speculation on stocks and job cuts and 25-year warranty, I think it's an academic discussion. Every major corporation has made job cuts including all investment banks and big tech companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, etc. It doesn't necessarily indicate anything negative about a company. It often means they are realigning, restrategising, and potentially shifting focus. For example, cutting back on sales or engineering, and shifting focus towards R&D, or vice versa. This especially happens when a company has experienced significant growth. This must taper off, and usually comes with job cuts (but also hiring in other departments which often isn't mentioned in the news articles). So, any speculation about Enphase on this point is mostly that. Stock prices will reflect the market sentiment only. And as @OffGridForGood alluded to, volatility or dips/peaks are more an opportunity for investors than a problem for a company. They're just sell-offs or taking profit ahead of a lull, especially after strong growth and before realignment/restrategisation. It's only when a company fails to sustain itself with new business, markets, or innovation does it fail. And I don't see any indication of that from Enphase. At worst, they'll be taken over, but it's impossible that millions of users' equipment would be rendered useless by a company failure. Governments, regulators, and big industry players would simply prevent that for a whole multitude of reasons I'll not go into here.

As for whether the 25-year warranty will be worthwhile in 20+ years, it's hard to say. But what it does offer is a confidence level in the quality of the equipment. No large corporate with regulated engineering and supply chains would offer this without substance.

 

[frasere2]

Indeed. @frasere2, read from this post onwards. The IQ8HC will max out when the panels are operating at 86.3% of their efficiency. First, they'll never operate at 100% efficiency, and probably closer to 80-90% maximum given their orientation. Second, they degrade over time, so even if there is any excess above the microinverters' limit, this will likely be temporary per the degradation graph after some years. The effect on the ROI therefore will be reduced. That's my qualitative assessment anyway. I haven't crunched any numbers on this, but the numbers seem roughly in the ballpark enough to not need to.

As for all the speculation on stocks and job cuts and 25-year warranty, I think it's an academic discussion. Every major corporation has made job cuts including all investment banks and big tech companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, etc. It doesn't necessarily indicate anything negative about a company. It often means they are realigning, restrategising, and potentially shifting focus. For example, cutting back on sales or engineering, and shifting focus towards R&D, or vice versa. This especially happens when a company has experienced significant growth. This must taper off, and usually comes with job cuts (but also hiring in other departments which often isn't mentioned in the news articles). So, any speculation about Enphase on this point is mostly that. Stock prices will reflect the market sentiment only. And as @OffGridForGood alluded to, volatility or dips/peaks are more an opportunity for investors than a problem for a company. They're just sell-offs or taking profit ahead of a lull, especially after strong growth and before realignment/restrategisation. It's only when a company fails to sustain itself with new business, markets, or innovation does it fail. And I don't see any indication of that from Enphase. At worst, they'll be taken over, but it's impossible that millions of users' equipment would be rendered useless by a company failure. Governments, regulators, and big industry players would simply prevent that for a whole multitude of reasons I'll not go into here.

As for whether the 25-year warranty will be worthwhile in 20+ years, it's hard to say. But what it does offer is a confidence level in the quality of the equipment. No large corporate with regulated engineering and supply chains would offer this without substance.

Hey, I just want you to have the right numbers. At 380w max output with the Enphase microinverters, your panels would have to degrade by 31% for you not to have clipping, assuming your microinverters don't degrade either. Why start with a handicap?

As for 25 year warranties being worthwhile in 20+ years, it's really not hard to say. Just look at solar panels from 20 years ago (or any other tech product) and the equipment being used. Nothing is the same. Look 5 years ago, nothing is the same. In 20 years you will have to upgrade your equipment to use the warranty, so the cost will still be there, unless as I said, they give you this upgrade for free. Its a sales gimmick. If you want to keep your ROI high, reduce your upfront costs. Don't go for the best of the best now, as it won't be the best in 2 years. My payback looks to be in 5 years, or less with the overproduction payments.

 

[CostOptimizer]

Hi @NeoX, in the Netherlands do you have any idea why panels between 400-450 Wp are taking up to 95% of all suppliers ? It is almost impossible to have a N-Type TopCon of minimally 585 Wp.
Some suppliers gave me some bullshit reasons like (1) more Wp means bigger and less safe while mounting, (2) 585 Wp is more for industrial setting and not for home setting.

I however think the only reasons why NL doesn't have latest panels are (1) because the suppliers want to buy cheap the out-fasioned 400-450Wp and sell in NL at a premium, and (2) the certification program for Solar Installer in NL is moving slowly way after the development of the panel technology.

 

[SeaGal]

Some suppliers gave me some bullshit reasons like (1) more Wp means bigger and less safe while mounting, (2) 585 Wp is more for industrial setting and not for home setting.

That is generally true.

What matters is efficiency of the panels - most are around 21 to 23%. The 550W+ panels aren't better, they are just bigger. So heavier to move and take up more space. Some, at over 2.2m long aren't ideal for putting 2 rows high on some roofs, whereas the smaller 1.7m high panes are.

 

[CostOptimizer]

That is generally true.

What matters is efficiency of the panels - most are around 21 to 23%. The 550W+ panels aren't better, they are just bigger. So heavier to move and take up more space. Some, at over 2.2m long aren't ideal for putting 2 rows high on some roofs, whereas the smaller 1.7m high panes are.

550+ Wp has about more of Wp per m2 surface due to having less edge, plus newer panels have better technology, so better efficiency: 22.8% (N-type Topcon or HJT) instead of 21.3% (P-type, 420 Wp), it requires less mounting labor and less heavy frame (e.g. 10 pieces of 550 Wp is 14 pieces of 420Wp).

 

[shadowmaker]

550+ Wp has about more of Wp per m2 surface due to having less edge, plus newer panels have better technology, so better efficiency: 22.8% (N-type Topcon or HJT) instead of 21.3% (P-type, 420 Wp), it requires less mounting labor and less heavy frame (e.g. 10 pieces of 550 Wp is 14 pieces of 420Wp).

You should try installing 700W bifacials (N-type HJT, shingled cell, 22,8%, 39kg each) like I did. Fun stuff.

 

[CostOptimizer]

You should try installing 700W bifacials (N-type HJT, shingled cell, 22,8%, 39kg each) like I did. Fun stuff.

Haha, how much per Wp have you bought, in Finland ?

 

[shadowmaker]

Haha, how much per Wp have you bought, in Finland ?

I paid 0,36c/W all included (home delivery from China, 24% VAT) about year and half ago. Few months ago bought 15,4kWp 550W monofacials 0,19c/W including VAT but made 100km roundtrip to collect. Got also quote from China 600W bifacials (N-type, TOPCon, 23,2%, 80+-5% bifaciality) 0,19c/W all included.

Going to install monofacials on nearby barn roof, so no need for bifacials this time. Also it takes 3-4 months to get panels from China. Later going to put bifacials on that barn walls as roof panels are kind of useless in winter here.