Socially negative impacts of solar

[venquessa]

Not sure if anyone has seen "Technology Connections" on YouTube.

He voiced a concern about "roof top" solar going forward which I personally had not considered much.

Basically his point, if I may butcher it a bit, is... The electrical grid needs to exist. Without it normal roof-top solar doesn't work. The electrical grid needs to be upgraded because in many places it is under equipped to deal with houses generating many times what they are consuming.

Net effect, the electricity companies and distribution network operators have to invest into the grid infrastructure not only to keep expanding it to meet expanding demands, but also sureing it up for more and more micro-gen roof-top solar = more and more money.

At the same time however, more and more people who "can afford it" are putting 3-5kW of solar on their roofs and slashing their electrical bill massively and in many cases actually netting an income!

So, people putting engineering pressure on the grid are also putting financial pressure on the grid.

Here is the catch. Only those people who can afford solar have a way out from the rising electrical costs caused by those who can afford solar. It's a self perpetuating problem and without any intervention will result in massive "fuel poverty" for those who cannot afford solar.

Here is my attempt at a solution, which, honestly I would sign up to myself.

We fund and organise a charity electrical retailer. (locality specific probably). That retail operator buys and sells electricity just like all the others. However, this one gets it's incoming electricity by donation and gives that energy in units to a pool which is distributed out to other electrical retailers to reduce registered "fuel poverty" suffers bills.

Explained differently. If/when I have 3-4kW on my roof and I am over-producing. The net export units, instead of netting me about 4p per unit, instead get donated for free to this retail charity. My certificates of micro-generation are donated to this charity. When reconciled they amount to a number of "kWh" units of electricity, normally paid for in a feed-in tarif. The stream of these coming in, can be exchanged for actual electrical units from other retailers and go against poor peoples bills.

It's a very communist, socialist and "communal-energy" based.

But... you know what? I would far, far, far rather the over-production from my panels goes towards the 41p per unit electrical costs of present instead of the electrical retails insulting me with something less than 10p a unit in feed in.

It would take government intervention to prevent retailers from only paying out 4p or something for those generation units. It would work perfectly well if it was unit for unit. Or even unit for unit - transmission and distribution losses (which are normally paid by the retailer).

 

[venquessa]

Sorry... another factor which is raising it's head more and more often is loss of revenue from "fuel duty" for vehicles etc.

I believe in Spain, one of the sunniest places on earth, the government has started taxing solar generation for this reason. It has taken far too much away from their energy taxation and is causing huge issues for their grid. (This is possibly hear-say).

 

[timselectric]

This only refers to grid-tied solar.
Off grid systems don't need or put stress on the grid.

 

[venquessa]

A little more "out there" and "yeah right, this is a capitalist country, will never happen".

If the electrical distribution operators produced reports on the "area" consumption versus "area" meter readings the the differential could be used to reduce everyone in that areas bill by that ratio.

Say a nieghbourhood's quarterly meter readings all add up to 10MWh consumption. However the transformer supplying them only drew 5MWh over the same quarter.

The everyone in the area pays 50% the unit rate.

 

[venquessa]

This only refers to grid-tied solar.
Off grid systems don't need or put stress on the grid.

That's true.
However they are far, far more influential at night taking money away from the grid.

Also, I think for the vast majority of people outside of Spain and California, you absolutely will 100% want the grid to be there when the battery is flat and it's raining in January.

Having not paid a cent to the grid all summer, you will still expect it to be there and to serve you when you need it.

While everyone else pays for it.

 

[timselectric]

Over the next 30 years (maybe less). Everyone will leave the grid behind. The last customers left will have to bear the cost of keeping it going.
Don't be in that group.

Just my opinion. Everyone should come to their own conclusions.

 

[venquessa]

That is maybe true, but I really doubt it will get that far.

If the people don't do something, governments and large companies will.

History shows the least fortunate end up with the worst outcomes until regulation steps in.

I have seen many think tank reports and most of them will be coming after your off-grid power and storage, with court warrants if necessary.

The grid will consist of EVs, house batteries and all the houses will have remotely controlled circuits so that individual loads can be shed when necessary. During the day time the grid operator charges your car and house battery, at night the grid operator drains your EV and house battery while not allowing you to use the dish washer or electric oven.

This is part of their "No more base load" strategy, where base load averages out locally with local storage and local generation.

The thing people don't like about that is the intrusion into your home. Where the grid operator can disable your devices or far, far more likely charge you an arm and a leg to use them when renewables are scarce, even if you just generated them yourself.

In such a future, "off-grid" will be a dirty word referring to what "utility tampering" is today. "Off grid" storage would be like bootlegging whiskey in the US in the prohibition era. I believe this is the situation already developing in Spain where the tax is on generation, regardless of on or off grid and regardless of storage or not.

 

[Caesium]

Having not paid a cent to the grid all summer, you will still expect it to be there and to serve you when you need it.

Tell me more about this standing charge free tariff you must be on, I'll be on it like a shot

 

[derekisastro]

Over the next 30 years (maybe less). Everyone will leave the grid behind. The last customers left will have to bear the cost of keeping it going.
Don't be in that group.

Just my opinion. Everyone should come to their own conclusions.

I could be proven wrong but I cannot see that happening in 100 years let alone less than 30. In any sphere of interest, I think many fail to really grasp just how much of the populations of a whole they represent. It's very easy to think, on this forum, that people like us are super common but the actual reality is, the number of people who actually know much beyond that solar exists is incredibly tiny. Now, don't confuse this with how many people have solar. I live in CA and so every new build basically gets solar that doesn't mean people have any idea of what it is why it exists, the issues, and the benefits beyond the simple fact that ... they had to get it. They are not moving off-grid ... likely ever. And they are 99%+ of people with solar. So no, the grid will be around for a long time and most of us will continue to utilize the grid. True off-grid-ers are a minor % of a minor % of the population as a whole.

 

[venquessa]

I believe that most consumers in the west pay by "unit consumption" of "real power". They get paid by unit generation.

A lot of people might be unaware of how electricity is wholesaled. It isn't by consumption and surprisingly the grid has virtually no idea about consumption, it is far, far too hard to measure and most of it isn't. The only thing they have are what various end user meters say and what the meters at the power plants say. The two do not match, not even close. The "unmetered" consumption and losses are huge.

Most wholesale and industrial billing is done based on a complex task starting with their "peak 15 min load" in kW. Their reactive power in KVar and then various distribution costs and transmission costs are applied based on how much grid infrastructure they are utilising and how far they are from the power station.

In such a billing system if you switch a 3kW kettle on for 5 seconds, you will be billed for a peak load of 3kW for that period. Regardless of how long the kettle was running over those 15 minutes.

When it comes to the grid (not retailers) the 3 things they care about are how many megawatts they need to generate at any particular time of day, to be able to respond pro-actively to that. If the kettle is on for even 1 second, the grid needs the power to be there or the voltage drops, the frequency drops and all hell breaks loose.

Second is how much infrastructure does the grid operator need to maintain to supply that customer/retailer. Third is how much is lost delivering that power to that customer. This is why you find large industrial stuff near power stations, although it is a bit obvious it carries HUGE financial savings.

At the bottom end of all of this, the "unit" rate suggested for wholesale use by retailers is about 2% of what you and I pay. It's less than a penny per unit, net wholesale.

I'm putting this to you because, we do live in a capitalist society and we all know that business and industry get what they want, when they want. Basically, while we pay 41p per unit, industry ends up paying about 1p per unit. We the consumer pay the vast majority of the electric bill.

If we all bugger off "off grid" that will not and cannot remain tennable. Then again, the UK has run out of industry to power because it moved it all to other countries. Best carbon saving strategy in history. Not.

The UK has already begun roll out of metering technology that can and probably will change how we get billed electricity. We are already see variable rate tarrifs based on availability of renewables. Those same meters can easily be swtiched to charging based on peak demand, reactive power etc. etc.

For grid-tie exporters, that meter could end up charging you based on your peak export kW throughout the day AND a variable rate feed-in tarif which goes negative during high solar output when the grid doesn't want the power, even after offsetting the phase to stop the grid-tie units.

Maybe I'm cynical and paranoid, but I think things, the way they are isn't going to last much longer before the energy revolution takes some interesting twists and turns. There is too much revenue leaking out of the economy from self-generation and I don't see it holding before someone starts to put the arm in.

 

[venquessa]

Tell me more about this standing charge free tariff you must be on, I'll be on it like a shot

Our Best Electricity Price Plans for your home | Electric Ireland NI

www.electricireland.com

Welcome.

 

[timselectric]

While everyone else pays for it.

My point exactly.
Don't end up in that group.

 

[Quattrohead]

This only refers to grid-tied solar.
Off grid systems don't need or put stress on the grid.

And as per above is only affordable for people that already have money, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and middle class get shafted from both ends.

 

[Caesium]

Our Best Electricity Price Plans for your home | Electric Ireland NI

www.electricireland.com

Welcome.

Sheesh, I hate our broken UK energy market. So jealous of this

 

[Quattrohead]

Over the next 30 years (maybe less). Everyone will leave the grid behind. The last customers left will have to bear the cost of keeping it going.
Don't be in that group.

Just my opinion. Everyone should come to their own conclusions.

Exactly as has happened to POTS.
I wonder if the same thing is going to happen to ICE users?

 

[timselectric]

I could be proven wrong but I cannot see that happening in 100 years let alone less than 30. In any sphere of interest, I think many fail to really grasp just how much of the populations of a whole they represent. It's very easy to think, on this forum, that people like us are super common but the actual reality is, the number of people who actually know much beyond that solar exists is incredibly tiny. Now, don't confuse this with how many people have solar. I live in CA and so every new build basically gets solar that doesn't mean people have any idea of what it is why it exists, the issues, and the benefits beyond the simple fact that ... they had to get it. They are not moving off-grid ... likely ever. And they are 99%+ of people with solar. So no, the grid will be around for a long time and most of us will continue to utilize the grid. True off-grid-ers are a minor % of a minor % of the population as a whole.

This will change.
And compound exponentially.
The down fall of net metering. Is making grid-tied less attractive. And making off grid more inviting.

 

[timselectric]

Exactly as has happened to POTS.
I wonder if the same thing is going to happen to ICE users?

I believe it will.
Gas prices are going to continue to get higher. As less customers carry the infrastructure costs.

 

[Skypower]

Right now in California retrofit solar is a hard sell. New homes require solar but most of those are a joke, too small, lowest bid or even south facing. PG&E utility has become invasive in what you can do and are very involved with any permitting even non solar issues. The bottom line is with very long, convoluted permitting, inadequate incentives a socialized tax on the horizon, makes no financial sense for suburban home solar let alone including a battery system. The infrastructure in California with all this go to electric conversion without enough new storage and generation will fail epically. About as well as an all electric military ? I thought it was a joke.

 

[OPTIMALSOLAR]

This so reminds me of the land line phone vs mobile phone debate of the 1980's. How did that play out? Was communism the fix? Nyet comrade. First off, leave first world it is not even a debate. Very few new land lines being put up, and land line phone service for those unwilling to change, crazy high in price. And a spamfest. Supply and demand. Mint 15 bucks a month. Choices and taking responsibility for said choices.

Most homes can save money by switching to solar. Those that do supply the grid. So it is not like it is solar bringing grid down or causing late adopters to pay more. Almost anyone can afford solar. Age may be a limiter, but can't take it with you so....Poor credit score will lengthen payback, but that is on the person who created said score. Unable or unwilling to do research will lengthen payback, but sites like this make it a whole lot easier.

Bottom line if one has good sun and pays 2.25 to 2.75/watt for grid tied, the solar buy will be a home run as to cost vs energy produced, while producing for your neighbor, so that the grid does not have to. Thus lessening grid constraints in the hottest part of year in Texas. I'll let the grid managers and electricity providers fend for themselves while the complainers pay the brunt of the added cost they imagine the solar producers created for them.

 

[Hedges]

ICE users, more like owners of film cameras, where film and developing got expensive or unavailable.
DIY stills or home pressed vegetable oil? Syn fuels fed with energy from PV?

PV required on new homes in California, but that costs 3x what utility scale PV does.
Liberals would say, "But it is good for the environment! Doesn't matter what it costs."
Engineers like me say, "But for the same dollars you could have done 3x as much for the environment."

(Same goes for hybrid vs. pure EV, could have had 6x as many people switch to 95% of miles all electric, for a given amount of lithium and battery manufacturing capacity.)

But then credits for exported power were changed. New home buyers are now required to spend their money on PV and give the power to utility for less than it cost them. A net loss in money, mandated by government to be transferred to the utility.

The photon tax is a bad one.
Next we need to tax people with yards for the raindrops they collect, healthy people for breathing natural air instead of concentrated oxygen, gardeners for growing their own food rather than supporting migrant workers and industrial scale farms, housewives for cooking their own food instead of buying from restaurants, home mechanics for not supporting their dealership or independent mechanic ...