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The Most Effective Technology, on Average, Relative to its Own Peak Performance? (fixed position)

TIP

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During the day, for a fixed silicon based (most likely all types) solar panel, the peak efficiency may be reached only briefly, if at all, depending on many parameters, including longitude, weather and so on, but what about the average during the day?
Which type of solar PVs daily average efficiency is actually best, comparatively and/or relative to it's own peak efficiency?
This is one of the questions that few people don't seem to be asking at all, and I haven't even gotten close to an answer during the vast number of hours doing research.

My reasons for asking are strange and silly perhaps, but basically, it's not all about the money, strange though that may sound. My goal is really to figure which technology allow for the best balance between summer and vinter, to avoid massive excess production in the summer and/or the need for massive storage capacity for the vinter. It seems safe to conclude that it is simply not possible to achieve perfection, not even close, and certainly not where I live, in Denmark, where the shortest day of the year is just 7 hours with a solar zenit of just 23 ½ ° N, and don't even get me started on the weather. Still, I like the thought experiment and thus the aforementioned question is of special interest to me.
Other questions of note is which technology performs best with no direct sunlight, if avoiding direct sunlight with improve on longevity on certain types of panels with a, comparatively, mediocre life expectancy, which best takes advantage of UV and so on.


Thanks and best regards.
 
There are many websites with average peak sun hours for location and Season. A peak sun hour will give you rated wattage of 1000w/m2 This is not the same as how many hours of daylight. Since solar panels are between 19% and 23% efficient you can calculate expected output if you use area facing the sun directly. So if you look up your location and get a hour reading of lets say 5hrs. You would take your panels rated wattage and multiply by 5. This gives you the number of watt-hour per day you could generate.

Anything less than full 1000w/m2 of sun is going to give you less watts.

In order to power loads you need not only generate running wattage but starting current. This means that your system has to get that power at the time of load use or supply it somehow with a make up source. This brings in batteries or the grid. Many loads we use run for a small amount of time and than shut down or they drop to a lower power demand. But you need to size for the peak demand.

Think of solar power as a water pipe filling up a tank. The pipe allows you to fill the tank (batteries or grid) when there is no draw out. If supply in equals loads out the tank's water level stays constant. However, depending on the Season, the water pipe is not big enough to handle a large load by itself so the water level drops. Perhaps in the monsoon season you fill the tank within a few minutes but during a drought it barely trickles in. Your loads on the other hand do not care. They take what they need or do not operate. Thus you have the situation of having too much supply sometimes and not enough at other times.
 
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During the day, for a fixed silicon based (most likely all types) solar panel, the peak efficiency may be reached only briefly, if at all, depending on many parameters, including longitude, weather and so on, but what about the average during the day?
Which type of solar PVs daily average efficiency is actually best, comparatively and/or relative to it's own peak efficiency?
This is one of the questions that few people don't seem to be asking at all, and I haven't even gotten close to an answer during the vast number of hours doing research.

My reasons for asking are strange and silly perhaps, but basically, it's not all about the money, strange though that may sound. My goal is really to figure which technology allow for the best balance between summer and vinter, to avoid massive excess production in the summer and/or the need for massive storage capacity for the vinter. It seems safe to conclude that it is simply not possible to achieve perfection, not even close, and certainly not where I live, in Denmark, where the shortest day of the year is just 7 hours with a solar zenit of just 23 ½ ° N, and don't even get me started on the weather. Still, I like the thought experiment and thus the aforementioned question is of special interest to me.
Other questions of note is which technology performs best with no direct sunlight, if avoiding direct sunlight with improve on longevity on certain types of panels with a, comparatively, mediocre life expectancy, which best takes advantage of UV and so on.


Thanks and best regards.
You may find some answers looking up university research papers, but in general I am not sure if this will help, the tech is changing too fast it seems. I am pretty sure the research is following behind, while the developers are likely not sharing a lot of the trade secrets. A PV panel will normally list 'NOCT' as well as max output, generally to indicate more likely real world conditions. Typically 75-80% of max is pretty normal PV average, however I have certainly seen 115% on a nice bright cold winter day too. (one of the few advantages of northern latitudes).
Does the PV deteriorate based on how much direct sunlight the panel has been exposed to, or just weathering in general, I have no idea. They all report some deterioration with time, and it seems we can rely on at least 80% even after 20 years. I fugure in 20 years there will be far better PV panels available and it will make good sense to change them out by then.
One way to address the difference between summer and winter solar is to feed-in to your local grid during summer, and then use this credit during winter, like a 100% efficient enormous battery bank, if this is available in your area.
 
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During the day, for a fixed silicon based (most likely all types) solar panel, the peak efficiency may be reached only briefly, if at all, depending on many parameters, including longitude, weather and so on, but what about the average during the day?
Panel efficiency just isn't important as panels are sold sized to watts; basically it only dictates the physical size of a solar panel (e.g., a more efficient panel will be smaller).

What affects the panel's efficiency primarily is it's angle to the sun, other than that it's the power that varies rather than the efficiency (although efficiency does fall off in low light conditions).

What varies during the day are two things: the available energy (W/m²) from the sun which
is a function of how much atmosphere it travels through and obstructions (e.g., clouds,
shade) and of course the angle.

From the red line in the graph to the right, you can see the amount of atmosphere is the
far lesser loss. The angle of the sun at any point on the blue line represents the panel
efficiency at that angle. I'm not sure if monocrystalline or polycrystalline is better.
sun-tracking-vs-fixed-solar-panel-poer-output.png.webp


What's far more important is the panel's efficiency in low-light conditions as it's more
common. The image to the right is some testing I did with my LG Neons with varying
cloudy conditions limiting the available power.

I found that efficiency didn't start dropping off until under 200W/m² of ambient light.

Monocrystalline is supposed to be better, but these aren't numbers typically published.
1590669215369-png.14079


My goal is really to figure which technology allow for the best balance between summer and vinter, to avoid massive excess production in the summer and/or the need for massive storage capacity for the vinter.
You'll definitely want to get familiar with temperature corrections, panel efficiency goes up when they're cold, some panels are maginally better for hot or cold climates.

You can tune your panels by angling them for winter production, but unless you use most of the power in summer it'll be lopsided with solar.

You might be interested in bi-facial panels. Grass in summer won't help the albedo, but snow in winter could up power by 40%.

Wind or GeoThermal for winter?

If you find that your big winter expense is heating then a ground source heat pump (see image right) might be able to greatly reduce winter heating.
1682944655229.png
with a, comparatively, mediocre life expectancy, which best takes advantage of UV and so on.
Last time I looked Panasonic panels had the lowest degradation over time, but that's something commonly listed in the datasheets and usually tied to the 25 yr warranty.

You might also be interested in Comparing Solar Panels.

Hope that's of some help!
 
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I am very impressed with the answers so far. While I don't feel like I have gotten an answer to the fundamental question, I didn't expect to either, and I don't know that there really is a simple answer- In any case, the answers are certainly useful.

Thanks you.
 
Ahh the answer to the ultimate question. 42.

You asked which type of solar is more efficient on average over the day versus its peak wattage amount and people answered that average depends on not only panel type but location, Season and daily weather. How much more do you need to know? It is like asking if a bifacial panel will output more than a typical Mono and leave out how both are installed and where.
 
...While I don't feel like I have gotten an answer to the fundamental question...
I thought we got them all. What did we miss?

I suppose we could mention SAM, great free tool to for examining any scenarios you can come up with.
 
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Your question focusses on, essentially, three aspects:

  • Wavelength conversion efficiency
  • Angle of the majority of the rays
  • Brightness

Wavelength​

All cheap solar cells are made with silicon as the primary material, and as a result all will have a efficiency curve that is most efficient at infrared, and tapers in efficiency toward ultraviolet. If your sky appears blue, then you'll likely understand that scattered sunlight hitting the ground tends to be shorter wavelengths (blue & ultraviolet) rather than longer wavelengths (red and infrared). In the absence of atmosphere, clouds, etc you'd find that the only time the solar panel gets power is when the sun's light falls on the panel, and you would have zero power otherwise. With atmosphere you find that your panels will provide power when in shadow due to light scattering. Unfortunately for us, Rayleigh scattering means that much of the incidental light tends toward blue, where the solar panels have a lower efficiency. Further, ultraviolet photons are more energetic than infrared photons, so can produce more energy per photon.

However, "Sunlight energy that reaches the ground is around 4% ultraviolet, 43% visible light, and 53% infrared. Solar panels mostly convert visible light into electrical energy, and they also can make use of almost half the infrared energy." ( source )

So the reality is that scientists and manufacturers have already developed the correct panels for our use on the surface of the Earth. Newer panels tweak the recipe and increase the efficiency of conversion of the solar energy that hits the ground to improve it, but at this point there's no magic new technology or significant change we can make that will result in a significant improvement. Perhaps in the future, but it's not a questions of what type of energy we see at the surface, we know exactly what is available in direct and indirect solar radiation. It's now just a question of what technology will have the best conversion ratio.

Brightness​

The solar light has to pas through a certain amount of atmosphere, lowing energy along the way, before it hits the solar panel. Ambient light has to hit reflective surfaces, losing energy, then pass through more atmosphere before hitting the panel. There's just no way to avoid this issue, and no new technology is going to change the panel in a way to overcome this. We can mount them higher - peaks of mountains, floating/flying solar farms, or we can change the atmosphere - remove the ozone layer (we know how to do that!), and we can remove CO2 from the atmosphere (something that is being actively worked on. CO2 absorbs infrared radiation, and re-emits it, but the emission direction is random so you'll find that the overall light hitting the surface is less than if it weren't there. However, the average amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is 0.04% - 400 parts per million - and small changes in that will have wide ranging effects. Reduce it to 200ppm and watch plants struggle to live. (when climate activists talk about a 2% change in CO2 being disastrous they are talking about a move of around 8 parts per million - something that can only be detected accurately by expensive precision instruments). All this comes together to indicate that even if we could affect the CO2 that much, the fact that it's already tiny means that even a large movement won't be noticed by solar panels on the ground.

Cloud cover has the biggest impact on brightness, and even if we could banish clouds from the sky, the negative impact on life could only be described as catastrophic, so it's not worth contemplating.

The reality is that we really can't improve the brightness of the light that hits the ground by changing the solar technology or the world in any way that is reasonable given the tradeoffs involved.

Angle of the majority of the rays​

This one is one of the bigger factors that affects those far away from the equator. Even if we mount the panels to a perfect solar tracker and the panels are always directly pointed at the sun, the light has to go through more atmosphere to reach the panel than it does for those at the mid latitudes. This results in more light loss due to absorption and scattering, and less light hitting our panel. See this visual for an example.

Solar trackers are generally not cost effective, but there are coatings on higher efficiency panels that take light received at an angle tot he panel surface and direct it down into the panel. This is done by changing the reflectivity of the glass so more light is refracted into the glass and panel than reflected away from the glass and panel. Some even have micro lenses to improve the capture of light. The more light a panel absorbs and doesn't reflect, the more black a panel will appear to our eyes.

But the light still has to pass through more atmosphere, and the light loss is unavoidable.

Which type of solar PVs daily average efficiency is actually best, comparatively and/or relative to it's own peak efficiency?
...
My goal is really to figure which technology allow for the best balance between summer and vinter, to avoid massive excess production in the summer and/or the need for massive storage capacity for the vinter.
...
Other questions of note is which technology performs best with no direct sunlight, if avoiding direct sunlight with improve on longevity on certain types of panels with a, comparatively, mediocre life expectancy, which best takes advantage of UV and so on.
The conclusion is that physics is the limiting factor. It's not an issue of getting a panels that is specifically better for your location and circumstances - the same physics applies to all locations on the surface of the planet. The only difference is that at the higher latitudes you will receive less energy, period. A different panel type or chemistry isn't going to improve that essential equation in any meaningful way - and here's the kicker: even if we did have magic technology that might provide some slight efficiency improvement, the vast majority of the population of the world lives at lower latitudes, making the market for such technology so small that there's no incentive to put it on the market. It's a moot point since nothing like that exists, but if you could improve your solar efficiency by 1% at a cost increase of 5,000%, would you consider it? Mass manufacturing is the only reason we are anywhere close to the prices per watt per square meter that we have available to us now - if you think about the thousands of processes involved in making even a cheap, inefficient solar panel and the fact that we can buy one for a day or two's wages, ie - it's worth 16 hours of our labor to perform these thousands of processes - it's really quite astonishing.

So, the answer to your question is this: The panels that are most efficient for any surface solar use are going to be the panels that are most efficient for you, if you're going to use them on the surface of the earth.
 
Impressive post Stienman. About as thorough of a look at the entire subject presented in a professional manner. Not something typically seen in a internet Forum.
 
Right
Assuming you are building a system on this planet.
Aliens can't catch a break. lol
 
I am sorry that I am too busy to give you the attention you deserve. I will get back to you and I meant what I wrote earlier, it is extremely valuable advice and information and it really is appreciated,

When I said I didn't feel like I got an answer to the essential question, though without any such expectations, it is because I am a very strange man with very strange ideas, and add to that severe, though high functioning autism, which complicates communication. I try my best, but often the essentials drown in the longwinded ramblings of mine.
Before I leave to take care of important matters, hoping to return before long with more time on my hand in the near future, here is my exact idea, as best I can describe it, which I was curious whether or not had any place in reality.

First Imagine that money and space is not a concern, at all. Of course this is not entirely true, but that's really not the point, not for me. If it's worth it, to my crazy mind, I will make it happen.

Then understand that the goal is neither to save or earn money, nor to invest in the cost effective solution, simply to produce the energy I need, living of grid, even at the worst of times, 7 hours of daylight, the sun low in the sky, often hazy or cloudy, etc.

Then understand that the other extreme, some 17½ hours of extreme excess production, is basically just as great a concern, to me. Some might not find this to be a problem, but I do. I absolutely abhor waste. I just cannot help it.

So what is the solution? Damned if I know, but being rather a lot cleverer than most, in my own not at all obvious special way, I've got no shortage of ideas.

First of, which technology? Frankly, the one I find most appealing, is old school Thin Film Amorphous Silicon. It has always fascinated me how a tiny photovoltaic device can produce enough power, basically in any condition, to do anything useful and that was what (?), 40 years ago, when I first experienced this magic?
The efficiency is low, some 7% I think, in comparison to fx Monocrystaline Silicon it hardly seems worth considering, but what does that matter? You just need more panels, right? But on the other hand even a small amounts of light will yield power, though perhaps not enough to be useful, I don't know. Furthermore it has the advantage of taking better advantage of UV, or so I'm told, which further makes it more productive in cloudy condition, though I may be mistaken. It is not an easy subject.

The longevity of course it atrocious, but if direct sunlight is the culprit, you could fx. imagine positioning then so as to always be in shade, or perhaps cover them party in periods of excess production, or any such "out there" solution, to improve on the life span.
Producing power basically all day should further meet at least part of the energy requirements, when needed, elimination a lot of conversion and charging losses, or so I should think. (?)

I am perfectly well aware that other solutions would be better, by a landslide, but this is not the issue. That would be too easy. No, it is about the balance. Achieving perfection if you wish. Perfection for course is only achieved when you have eliminated that which cannot be perfected, leaving you with nothing, but I for one believe that the value of the journey far outweigh the disappointments along the way.

Now of course I don't expect for the aforementioned technology to be the solution, though I was surprised to find what it actually it possible to find such panels, but there are other more or less similar thin film technologies that may or may not have the same advantages. I do not actually know, because they seem to be wrapped in mystery. Yes there is much information to be found, but consistent and clear information... Well, I at least have found it frustratingly difficult to find.

Then again, the solution may not be some new and fancy photovoltaic technology at all. Excess production can be useful. Not only have I long been pondering the idea of using this energy for the purification of rainwater, but one could also imagine using it for hydrogen production, using some form of electrolysis, compressing and storing it for the winter, where it could be used for clean production using fuel cells, or even by combustion.
I have also imagined completely dropping the idea of photovoltaics and just go with thermal conversions. The aforementioned rainwater needs heating anyway, a large and well insulated body of water can certainly make for useful energy storage, sterling engines can, I hear, be rather efficient, and so on and so forth. Then again, that is a low of moving parts...

There are so many questions and so few clear answers, and your help have already been invaluable. If I'm not particularly good at expressing this fact, I do apologize.
Lastly, if I'm not much mistaken, I do actually believe I have now gotten the answer I was looking for. For this I am grateful, though my ability to comprehend it remains to be seen.


Again thank you ever so much for your efforts. My appreciation really is without bounds.

Best regards.
 
....

Then understand that the other extreme, some 17½ hours of extreme excess production, is basically just as great a concern, to me. Some might not find this to be a problem, but I do. I absolutely abhor waste. I just cannot help it.

....
You suffer under a common misunderstanding. There is no excess production. Without loads no power is produced. You have no waste other than potential. Think of it like this. If you have a car in your garage is its ability to be moving and going somewhere being wasted because it is just sitting around? How about the potential of a light left off?

The sun shines and produces darn near incalculable power. That power streams outwards through the solar system and planets are subject to it as they spin and rotate in orbit around it. PV taps into a portion of it as loads are available.
 
Foundation:
...money and space is not a concern, at all.

...the goal is ... simply to produce the energy I need, living of grid, even at the worst of times, 7 hours of daylight, the sun low in the sky, often hazy or cloudy, etc.

...extreme excess production, is ... just as great a concern ... I absolutely abhor waste.

... it is about the balance. Achieving perfection ...

First of all, I think you may learn a great deal from the industry's latest research. Consider the two following books, as well as the related scientific publications:


Secondly, the requirements at the foundation of your desire are at odds with each other when you strictly limit yourself to solar energy. If you do not allow for other energy sources, you will compromise on one or more of your goals, so you may want to prioritize them and re-evaluate that priority as you learn. In addition, consider other energy sources or sinks you would find acceptable. Wind is an obvious one, but many skip over geothermal - not just as a sink, but as a source. Geothermal sources require deep wells, but if perfect sink-source matching and maximal efficiency is desired then you may find what you need with a geothermal heat source which provides a constant flow of energy, regardless of the seasons, weather, or other cyclic externalities.

Lastly, I think to even approach this with the requirement of "energy I need" then you need to have comprehensive, multi-year, time and season relative energy demand data. Understanding your consumption is of the highest priority if avoiding waste is in the priority list at all. Further, you'll need to measure not just electrical consumption, but all your energy sources and sinks - sun coming in through the windows affects your consumption differently during summer and winter. Hot water usage varies based on workdays and weekends, ground temperature, and water source depth. Sump pump usage varies based on rain patterns.

Perfection and balance would be best achieved by matching your sinks and sources before adding additional energy sources into the system. Your fridge moves heat from it's inside to its outside, while your water heater moves heat from its outside to its inside. They move different amounts, but by coupling them you consume less overall.

Adding a soil roof is not inexpensive, and requires more maintenance, but rather than bouncing some of the sun back into the atmosphere, and abosrbing the rest into the house whether it's wanted or not, you'd be directing it to plant growth which reduces waste, reduces the daily and seasonal variation of the dwelling temperature, and, if coupled with water reclamation reduces the impact of water use on the environment.

Granted, this is a solar forum, and you're keeping your musings here on topic, so you may already be approaching all these interrelated systems together, but if not consider more than just the solar panel when determining how to proceed meeting your specific needs.
 
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During the day, for a fixed silicon based (most likely all types) solar panel, the peak efficiency may be reached only briefly, if at all, depending on many parameters, including longitude, weather and so on, but what about the average during the day?
Which type of solar PVs daily average efficiency is actually best, comparatively and/or relative to it's own peak efficiency?

I don't think "efficiency" is the correct word. Any reduction in efficiency when light strikes PV panel at an oblique angle would be related to reflection vs. absorption, but I think you're referring more to the reduced power output due to less area presented to the sun, and change in spectrum/intensity of light traveling further through the atmosphere including clouds. Those factors aren't "efficiency."

Then understand that the other extreme, some 17½ hours of extreme excess production, is basically just as great a concern, to me. Some might not find this to be a problem, but I do. I absolutely abhor waste. I just cannot help it.

Sunshine was hitting the earth in the same space, "wasting" the same energy eons ago. Learn to accept it.

Select the correct technology for the job. If you need to power A/C, greater production during long summer days is a plus, not waste. You'll want variable A/C capacity to better match production (and thermal mass in the building.)

In my judgement, discarding surplus PV production is the best thing to do (see my estimates of PV and battery costs below.)

Of course if you can use the surplus for variable rate bitcoin mining or something like that, might come out further ahead. But only if the waste of having idle capital equipment doesn't outweigh the benefit. Plating out metals from industrial wastewater? At least then the capital equipment is just a water tank and power supply.


Frankly, the one I find most appealing, is old school Thin Film Amorphous Silicon. It has always fascinated me how a tiny photovoltaic device can produce enough power, basically in any condition, to do anything useful and that was what (?), 40 years ago, when I first experienced this magic?
The efficiency is low, some 7% I think, in comparison to fx Monocrystaline Silicon it hardly seems worth considering, but what does that matter?

Couple decades ago it looked like thin film might compete on price, when PV cost $5/watt. Today at $0.50/watt, requiring double or triple the area of single crystal wafer PV means excessive cost for labor and materials. That's extra energy costs and resources as well.

Thin film requires higher tech manufacturing equipment, driving the cost and limiting rate of adding production capacity. Silicon ingots and thick film processing wins.

Maybe something else will come along. Nanosolar, printable PV? Didn't pan out (for one reason or another.)


Those production curves for fixed orientation vs. flat production for dual axis tracker? Almost made sense once, but today cheaper to populate multiple orientations on fixed mounts. Avoids failure of tracker too.

Grid tie PV hardware has reached about $0.025/kWh (amortized over 20 years), although recent demand and supply chain temporarily pushed it higher. For those of us paying $0.25 to $0.50/kWh for utility power, a clear win. Rules change so batteries get interesting. Possibly $0.05/kWh if claimed cycle life is achieved. That takes care of night time, smoothing out one day's use. What we don't have yet is seasonal storage.
 
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During the day, for a fixed silicon based (most likely all types) solar panel, the peak efficiency may be reached only briefly, if at all, depending on many parameters, including longitude, weather and so on, but what about the average during the day?
Which type of solar PVs daily average efficiency is actually best, comparatively and/or relative to it's own peak efficiency?

I don't think "efficiency" is the correct word. Any reduction in efficiency when light strikes PV panel at an oblique angle would be related to reflection vs. absorption, but I think you're referring more to the reduced power output due to less area presented to the sun, and change in spectrum/intensity of light traveling further through the atmosphere including clouds. Those factors aren't "efficiency."

Then understand that the other extreme, some 17½ hours of extreme excess production, is basically just as great a concern, to me. Some might not find this to be a problem, but I do. I absolutely abhor waste. I just cannot help it.

Sunshine was hitting the earth in the same space, "wasting" the same energy eons ago. Learn to accept it.

Select the correct technology for the job. If you need to power A/C, greater production during long summer days is a plus, not waste. You'll want variable A/C capacity to better match production (and thermal mass in the building.)

In my judgement, discarding surplus PV production is the best thing to do (see my estimates of PV and battery costs below.)

Of course if you can use the surplus for variable rate bitcoin mining or something like that, might come out further ahead. But only if the waste of having idle capital equipment doesn't outweigh the benefit. Plating out metals from industrial wastewater? At least then the capital equipment is just a water tank and power supply.


Frankly, the one I find most appealing, is old school Thin Film Amorphous Silicon. It has always fascinated me how a tiny photovoltaic device can produce enough power, basically in any condition, to do anything useful and that was what (?), 40 years ago, when I first experienced this magic?
The efficiency is low, some 7% I think, in comparison to fx Monocrystaline Silicon it hardly seems worth considering, but what does that matter?

Couple decades ago it looked like thin film might compete on price, when PV cost $5/watt. Today at $0.50/watt, requiring double or triple the area of single crystal wafer PV means excessive cost for labor and materials. That's extra energy costs and resources as well.

Thin film requires higher tech manufacturing equipment, driving the cost and limiting rate of adding production capacity. Silicon ingots and thick film processing wins.

Maybe something else will come along. Nanosolar, printable PV? Didn't pan out (for one reason or another.)


Those production curves for fixed orientation vs. flat production for dual axis tracker? Almost made sense once, but today cheaper to populate multiple orientations on fixed mounts. Avoids failure of tracker too.

Grid tie PV hardware has reached about $0.025/kWh (amortized over 20 years), although recent demand and supply chain temporarily pushed it higher. For those of us paying $0.25 to $0.50/kWh for utility power, a clear win. Rules change so batteries get interesting. Possibly $0.05/kWh if claimed cycle life is achieved. That takes care of night time, smoothing out one day's use. What we don't have yet is seasonal storage.
 
There are many websites with average peak sun hours for location and Season.
For some reason I have had great difficulty in locating such websites, but perhaps this is my mistake, my search queries having focussed a lot on thin film, and not so much on traditional mono- and polycrystaline panels. In any case, if you have a link to any such site at your disposal, it will be appreciated
Think of solar power as a water pipe filling up a tank...
I of course realize this, but my needs really are low in comparison to the average, and I already control much of it. My fridge and freezer for example only run outside of peak hours, due to higher cost during these hours, and there's really no reason the opposite could not also be the case, thus eliminating much of the need for any significant amount of storage. Likewise certain thing like my internet connection, modem, router, etc. automatically turns of when I'm not at home, which of course is largely during peak hours, so there's a saving, and it uses little power as is.
Furthermore, these inquiries relate to the future, when I will have put certain plans into works, further improving overall efficiency by no small factor.

Ahh the answer to the ultimate question. 42...
My apologies for not being clear enough, or perhaps simply asking silly questions.
I may or may not have made myself clearer in a later reply, but just in case, it doesn't hurt to try again.
Certain Amorphous and/or thin film panels, though they are less efficient, are so more consistently throughout the day, whereas the efficiency og the traditional crystalline technologies very much depend on them being angled correctly, ideally perpendicularly to the sun, thus requiring automatic mechanical mechanisms to get the most out of them.
However, even when doing so, the are still far less efficient in comparison to their peak potential, when conditions ar less than ideal, i.e. hazy, cloudy etc.
This is how I have come to understand the subject, and provided I am not much mistaken, my question really is rather simple, though probably best explained by example.

Take an old school thin film amorphous panel, with and efficiency of 7%. On average this will not reach these 7%, but will they come closer to that goal, than say a monocrystalline panel with a peak efficiency of 21% will come to those 21%, even under the best of conditions?
It seems to me that this may not in fact be the case, though I cannot competently argue this.
Furthermore, I am perfectly well aware that even if this is indeed the case, this does not mean the ladder is not the better option.

You suffer under a common misunderstanding...
In this case I can assure you that you are mistaken, rather it is my ineptitude at explaining myself that is at fault.
Truth be told, I hadn't really considered that which you assume, it being somewhat intuitively obvious, that with no closed circuit there will be not production.
A more apt phrasing would've been wasted potential production. You might compare it to and empty fridge. When empty, even when the power is off, it is, in a way, wasted potential.

With that, many thanks and great appreciation, hopefully I have made my self a bit clearer.
 
You may find some answers looking up university research papers, but in general I am not sure if this will help, the tech is changing too fast it seems. I am pretty sure the research is following behind, while the developers are likely not sharing a lot of the trade secrets. A PV panel will normally list 'NOCT' as well as max output, generally to indicate more likely real world conditions. Typically 75-80% of max is pretty normal PV average, however I have certainly seen 115% on a nice bright cold winter day too. (one of the few advantages of northern latitudes).
Does the PV deteriorate based on how much direct sunlight the panel has been exposed to, or just weathering in general, I have no idea. They all report some deterioration with time, and it seems we can rely on at least 80% even after 20 years. I fugure in 20 years there will be far better PV panels available and it will make good sense to change them out by then.
One way to address the difference between summer and winter solar is to feed-in to your local grid during summer, and then use this credit during winter, like a 100% efficient enormous battery bank, if this is available in your area.

One of my issues doing research is that I seem to find little more relevant information than research papers, and even if I had access, as there's usually a paywall of sorts, my comprehension would likely be severely limited at best.

Feeding the grid, using for storage of sorts, is likely to be a very bad deal in the long run, In Denmark that is. As I understand it, it actually cost money to sell you excess production these days.

Even though the constant hypothetical thought experiment going on in my head probably benefits little from your efforts, they are not wasted and are most certainly appreciate. Thanks you
 
Panel efficiency just isn't important...

My apologies for a less than optimal phrasing of my question. I believe it is better phrased in my resent reply to user Mattb4.

What varies during the day are two things: the available energy (W/m²) from the sun which
is a function of how much atmosphere it travels through and obstructions (e.g., clouds,
shade) and of course the angle.
Indeed, and this, from what little I comprehend, is more or less what leads to my main question.

From the red line in the graph to the right...
Again, precicely my understanding, perhaps even more extreme, looking at the graph, than I expected. The solution, as you say, is to move the panels with the sun, but there are a number of issues witht hat solution, not least many additional points of failures.
Then there's the question as to how steep the dropoff is, in regards to the various technologies. You mention mono- and polycrystaline, which as I understand it behave more or less the same in this regards, but there are several thin film / Amorphous technologies as well, which promises to do much better.

What's far more important is the panel's efficiency in low-light conditions...

I found that efficiency didn't start dropping off until under 200W/m² of ambient light.
Exactly my point, and very usefull information indeed.

You'll definitely want to get familiar with temperature corrections, panel efficiency goes up when they're cold...
You might be interested in bi-facial panels...
I was aware of the decline with increasing temperature, but not of an increase in the other direction. This seemingly insignificant fact could potentially make a significant difference.
Wind or GeoThermal for winter?
I like to avoid mechanical solution wherever possible, though from any sensible perspective youa re of course entirely correct.
I had rather forgotten about the ladder option, but then again, it doesn't really satisfy my sensibilities either.
If you find that your big winter expense is heating...
This will never be the case, as with forethought and preparation it is easily avoided.

Last time I looked Panasonic panels had the lowest degradation over time---
When talking decades, degradation and longevity interest me only slightly, not least because the world of solar is certain to have changed a lot in a decade. My main interest is with the technologies that promises only perhaps 3-5 years, and if there's any way of extending their lifespan.

Hope that's of some help!
Not just some, most assuredly a lot, and you have my unconditional appreciation for your efforts.


I thought we got them all. What did we miss?

I suppose we could mention SAM, great free tool to for examining any scenarios you can come up with.
You most likely missed nothing, apart from my obvious ineptitude in regards to properly explaining myself.
Once again, thank you. This too was useful.
 
Predendum, for lag of a better term, many if not most of the questions I pose here, are answered in part or in full along the way, but I leave them as is just the same. The process itself can sometimes be illuminating also.

--- The actual reply ---

First of all, wow, just wow.

Your question focusses on, essentially, three aspects:

  • Wavelength conversion efficiency
  • Angle of the majority of the rays
  • Brightness

Wavelength​

All cheap solar cells are made with silicon as the primary material, and as a result all will have a efficiency curve that is most efficient at infrared, and tapers in efficiency toward ultraviolet. If your sky appears blue, then you'll likely understand that scattered sunlight hitting the ground tends to be shorter wavelengths (blue & ultraviolet) rather than longer wavelengths (red and infrared). In the absence of atmosphere, clouds, etc you'd find that the only time the solar panel gets power is when the sun's light falls on the panel, and you would have zero power otherwise. With atmosphere you find that your panels will provide power when in shadow due to light scattering. Unfortunately for us, Rayleigh scattering means that much of the incidental light tends toward blue, where the solar panels have a lower efficiency. Further, ultraviolet photons are more energetic than infrared photons, so can produce more energy per photon.
I knew, or at least should've known and recalled much of this, but to simplify matters, am I to understand that the main focus in the hunt for the perfect technology should be not only effective use of UV, but just as, if not more importantly the blue part of the spectrum, or is the potential gain insignificant in comparison?
However, "Sunlight energy that reaches the ground is around 4% ultraviolet, 43% visible light, and 53% infrared. Solar panels mostly convert visible light into electrical energy, and they also can make use of almost half the infrared energy." ( source )

So the reality is that scientists and manufacturers have already developed the correct panels for our use on the surface of the Earth. Newer panels tweak the recipe and increase the efficiency of conversion of the solar energy that hits the ground to improve it, but at this point there's no magic new technology or significant change we can make that will result in a significant improvement. Perhaps in the future, but it's not a questions of what type of energy we see at the surface, we know exactly what is available in direct and indirect solar radiation. It's now just a question of what technology will have the best conversion ratio.
I see your point, however I do believe that the difference between the parts of the world where development has likely been focussed to be suitable for, as the potential gains are that much greater, and where I live in the Nordics, where large scale solar farming is perhaps not all that great of an investment, is somewhat significant.
53% infrared, which presumably is in terms og actual energy and not something else, like the number of photons, is a lot, but if this does not penetrate the clouds, haze and/or the additional atmosphere given the tilt of the earth and so on, the efficiency becomes irrelevant, be it 0 or 100%. As I understand it, this is exactly the main difference, whereas Ultra Violet plays a far greater role under such circumstances, in reality promoting those 4% to perhaps twice that and potentially a lot more.
You pretty much seem to confirm my interpretation, and yet conclude that it is not worth to technologies that are perhaps not as well development or have other drawback, even though they promise an absorption curve (?) more fitting the circumstances.
I'm not really sure that I'm misunderstanding here. Presumably I've missed or misinterpreted something important.

Brightness​

...
The reality is that we really can't improve the brightness of the light that hits the ground by changing the solar technology or the world in any way that is reasonable given the tradeoffs involved.
This much is obvious. Well, perhaps not to everyone, but least to me, however flawed and inept I am otherwise, but then again, many speak out against wind, because it is unpredictable and thus unreliable (this of course is not true, not entirely), but still there is much focus on the area, only now there's an increased focus in regards to location, even areas with almost prohibitive costs, because that gain is that much greater in the long run, not least due to them becoming more reliable in terms of continuos wind and thus power. Might it not in the same way make sense to focus your energy on reliability when it come to solar, only instead of location on earth, location on the spectrum, where the the energy production is more reliable? In any case, this is exactly what I am trying to do, though of course I do not actually expect to succeed. If it was that easy, it wouldn't be that difficult for me to figure out if it's even worth attempting.

Angle of the majority of the rays​

...
Solar trackers are generally not cost effective, but there are coatings on higher efficiency panels that take light received at an angle tot he panel surface and direct it down into the panel. This is done by changing the reflectivity of the glass so more light is refracted into the glass and panel than reflected away from the glass and panel. Some even have micro lenses to improve the capture of light. The more light a panel absorbs and doesn't reflect, the more black a panel will appear to our eyes.
I have read about the micro lenses at least, but only now comprehension has dawned on me, as I was somewhat mystified as to how this could improve anything, but naturally it is all about the angle. Check.
... but if you could improve your solar efficiency by 1% at a cost increase of 5,000%, would you consider it?
Being European I rather enjoyed the prospect of simply answering yes, but of course the three zeroes confused me, until it dawned on me (no, it didn't take that long).
So yes to a factor of 5.000, not so much 5,000.
So, the answer to your question is this: The panels that are most efficient for any surface solar use are going to be the panels that are most efficient for you, if you're going to use them on the surface of the earth.

This answers, and by the way also all the others, vastly surpass any expectations I might have had, when first venturing into this forum. I really mean it when In say that my appreciation ends only due to the need for breathing, and other mundane necessities of life.

Still, I'm not quite certain what to conclude from your answer. Certainly my venture is not, nor will it ever be cost effective, but I knew that even before I started doing research. Truth be told, solar really is far from optimal, given other available options, under the circumstances, but it also has its advantages, like modularity, expandability and even cost, I think.
But at the end of the day the question really is a simple one. Am I really to understand that it doesn't matter, at all, if I go for crystalline, mono or poly, silicon or or some obscure isotope of bismuth, Amorphous, thin film or whatever the various technologies are called, just as long as their efficiency rating is the same?


In reply to your later answer, as I cannot handle more right now, you are most certainly right that I need to reevaluate, but this is exactly the point of this exercise, and the way I work in general. In order to evaluate or indeed reevaluate, you need accurate and reliable knowledge and in order to gain this, you need a source, which in some ways have been exceedingly difficult to find, but you have most certainly been a valuable, and I do believe reliable source, so again, I thank you.
 
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