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diy solar

Can Solar & Wind Fix Everything (e.g., Climate Change) with a battery break-through?

Would not recommend a solar panel investment

So, for the foreseeable future, according to Zharkova, we should not be thinking in terms of global warming, but of a significant cooling, such as that occurred in the 17th century, which will, of course, have a direct impact on our way of life. Take energy, for example, where, under the banner of the ‘green transition’ and move to ‘Net Zero’, the aim is to replace today’s energy production capacity with renewables such as solar panels as we move away from fossil fuels. According to Zharkova, in times of declining solar intensity, it is not worth naively hoping that solar panels will be able to produce any significant amount of energy. “I have only compassion towards the people who have invested in solar panels,” Zharkova says. When you consider that in the low period of solar activity, we can expect winters to get longer and that in northern Europe it may even snow in June, as it did in the 17th century, the prospects for solar panels are not very good. “During the Maunder Minimum, there were years when there was no summer at all – there was a short spring, then autumn and winter again. And if you’ve got snow on your solar panels or cloudy skies, they’re useless,” she says. We can also expect colder weather to put wind power generation under pressure – there are plenty of examples of wind turbines freezing and stalling.

Another serious concern, Zharkova says, is that food production will come under pressure in Europe as the weather gets colder and harvests could become stale. This means that better conditions for food production will have to be sought in southern Europe or even in Africa. In the north, more energy is needed to produce food, to heat homes and for all other activities. According to Zharkova, there is no getting away from fossil fuels now, which are a reliable source of energy, under such conditions. “If people survived in [the cold period in] medieval times, we should survive better because we’re better equipped. We have a little bit more energy resources if they are used wisely,” Zharkova says.

Global warming is also a reality

But Zharkova says a cold period of a few decades is a short episode compared to the current long warming trend. While the colder decades are due to the Sun’s declining activity, the warming is also due to the Sun as it is moving closer to Earth. Again, there is nothing unexpected about a change in the position of the planets and the Sun in space, relative to us. This too has happened repeatedly over a long history. It happens because of the gravitational pull of the big planets, and as the Sun moves closer to Earth, it raises the air temperature here. According to Zharkova, this solar cycle lasts for 2,100-2300 years and it is known as Hallstatt’s cycle of solar radiation. The current cycle will come to an end at around the year 2600, and although there will be another low period of solar activity, or GSM (2375-2415) during this period when it will be colder again, there will be a steady warming over the following five centuries. Based on her calculations, Zharkova estimates a temperature rise of 3.5°C by 2600. “Of course, we won’t be living here then, but our legacy will live on and people will be able to check and say that the blonde woman here was telling the truth about the Hallstatt’s cycle,” she jokes about herself.

According to Zharkova, in the overall context of the CO2 climate change narrative, it is important to understand that humans are actually bystanders in this process of change. “Whatever we do on Earth, we can’t change the orbit of the Sun and the big planets like Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus,” she explains. “We can’t do anything about it.”

Like the Spanish Inquisition”

However, it is precisely the fact that this process is natural that the mainstream climate science currently denies, and the only acceptable cause of climate change is the increase in the proportion of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. According to Zharkova, one does not bother with such “little things” as the Sun. In fact, she points out, that it has also been scientifically shown that the increase in atmospheric CO2 does follow the increase in temperature, and not the other way round, but this is another point that the proponents of anthropogenic climate warming refuse to take into account. “So this gives you an idea of how uneducated and unprofessional these people are who say that CO2 will lead to a rise in temperature,” Zharkova notes. “They are trying to silence anyone who questions their flawed models,” she adds.

Zharkova herself has experienced such attempts of silencing and persecution. She cites the example of a recent retraction in March 2020 of one of her scientific articles (Zharkova et al., 2019) by the Editor Rafal Marszalek of Nature Scientific Reports under pressure from the proponents of anthropogenic global warming, as she had mentioned in the article that the brightness of the Sun can change depending on where exactly the Sun is relative to Earth. Since you can logically argue that this could also affect the Earth’s climate, the paper had to be retracted. She is no longer welcome to publish in Nature, although she has done so several times in the past.

This retraction threat is the case, she says, for anyone who questions man-made global warming and explains climate change in any other way. “They are acting like the Spanish Inquisition did during the Maunder Minimum,” Zharkova says about the proponents of anthropogenic global warming, with her characteristic humour, and jokingly refers to them as the CO2 mafia.

A year later after the retraction in April 2021, Zharkova published a book chapter proving with the official ephemeris of the Sun-Earth distances provided by the official sides of NASA and Paris-Meudon Observatory, France that these Sun-Earth distances change exactly as they mentioned in the retracted paper. She says it proves that the Sun, its activity and its position in the orbit are the natural source of any climate change on Earth and other planets.
 
A year later after the retraction in April 2021, Zharkova published a book chapter proving with the official ephemeris of the Sun-Earth distances provided by the official sides of NASA and Paris-Meudon Observatory, France that these Sun-Earth distances change exactly as they mentioned in the retracted paper. She says it proves that the Sun, its activity and its position in the orbit are the natural source of any climate change on Earth and other planets.

FTFY:

 
That and technology changes making it faster to recharge them could mean the fuel cell doesn't make sense economically. Or a redox battery where you fill-up by swapping fluids.

I had been thinking rapid charging of an EV might be constrained by heat. If a battery is 96% efficient and you charge 100 kWh in 5 minutes, that means the car needs to deal with (100 x .04 =) 4 kWh of heat, that's about 14,000 BTUs in 5 minutes. I suppose that's not so bad, a V8 produces ~120,000 BTU/gallon (ref). So, at 60 mph and 30 mpg it's creating 20,000 btu in 5 minutes.


Why is that? With batteries covering the normal driving range, it wouldn't be like gas today where you fill up every week or so... you'd only need to top off a couple of times year or when traveling cross country. Refueling stations could manufacture their own hydrogen without the need for transport in such a scenario (possibly not at major highways where there could be substantial demand).


But, we have natural gas pipelines and distribute gasoline/diesel with few logistical problems today. Sure, it adds to the cost, but it does for gasoline and natural gas too. The problem I see with green hydrogen is the water. If the process uses salt water (*ref) that's no problem. But potable water? There's not much of that isn't spoken for in most places.

I agree with all of that. My guess is that fuel cells will still add extra weight, costs and complexity that could be covered more efficiently with batteries as they improve. To explain my motivation. I am not interested in driving more than 4 hours without having a break for food, toilet, stretching limbs and possibly a nap. This is why I have not been following the development in fuel cells as range and recharge time is a non isue for me personally. I do know people who can drive 48 hours with just stops to refuel and toilet breaks. Truck drivers can drive in shifts with one sleeping in the back. The question I don't know the answer to is if there are there enough people who want that to justify making those cars and modifying the infrastructure even if the hydrogen itself was virtually free. Today there might well be a case to be made for fuel cells, but will it make sense in 10 years time? My guess is that it won't be, but it is nothing more than a guess.

On top of all of that there is autonimous driving is going to change car ownership, you could argue that fuel cells might make sense if the cars were on the road 24*7. I expect that during the middle of the day the cars are just in parking lots where they could be charged during their idle time, possibly even with solar that covers those parking lots. Again, I am just guessing.

I am excited for the future and muting the useless noise does make for a better experience, thanks again for the tip.
 
Because the electricity generated by rooftop solar is worth less than zero
I like the rest of your post and it is quite possible that you are right, but if it costs me to send electicity to the grid, I won't be. There are modifications made to the hardware to take pricing into account. Having said that, grid connected inverters in combination with home routers gives me the heebie-jeebies.
 
... My guess is that fuel cells will still add extra weight, costs and complexity that could be covered more efficiently with batteries as they improve.
You have a great point that as the energy density and recharging speeds of batteries get better it would naturally take over the market.
But lower complexity is a huge disruption to the automotive marketplace which makes most of it's money on servicing those vehicles. All those local car dealerships won't be making money, which means many will close. This is one of the reasons for example you can now buy an EV on Amazon, car makers are testing alternative waters and looking at Tesla's model. Added complexity of PHEVs and FCEVs helps to give a transition period and more stable marketplace.

... I am not interested in driving more than 4 hours without having a break for food, toilet, stretching limbs and possibly a nap.
With fully autonomous cars, those making frequent long trips will probably have vehicles with bathrooms, fridge, movie-surround-sound theater, comfy beds, and LazyBoy's new auto lineup of recliner (just guessing ; -). Or, possibly just a VR headset. Who knows? In the future, people might give up homes and live in vehicles full time. I could see it for retirees to explore the world. While that's a bit futuristic (see ev camper vans), I think there are boats with EV like mopeds that people can sail to different countries and then explore them (the coastline at least).

On top of all of that there is autonomous driving is going to change car ownership, you could argue that fuel cells might make sense if the cars were on the road 24*7. I expect that during the middle of the day the cars are just in parking lots where they could be charged during their idle time, possibly even with solar that covers those parking lots. Again, I am just guessing.
I think that's true... for the most part.

The prior example of needing to evacuate the state (hurricanes are enormous) is an example of why it might not always work. While it is a real use case for me, it's a bit extreme as most people don't have to go greater than 400 miles just to get out of the state. But when it is a sudden emergency that moves a great number of people; trains and planes quickly become booked and there's no other way out of dodge other that stop and go clogged highways. I really like the sound of Aptera's 1,000 mile battery and solar recharging for that scenario. ; -)

You raise a good point that some use cases like mine might be to small to sustain economical solutions.
 
With fully autonomous cars, those making frequent long trips will probably have vehicles with bathrooms, fridge, movie-surround-sound theater, comfy beds, and LazyBoy's new auto lineup of recliner (just guessing ; -). Or, possibly just a VR headset. Who knows? In the future, people might give up homes and live in vehicles full time. I could see it for retirees to explore the world. While that's a bit futuristic (see ev camper vans), I think there are boats with EV like mopeds that people can sail to different countries and then explore them (the coastline at least).
Sounds wonderful, now if I could work from this camper, I would seriously consider doing that full time and move with the seasons just use a virtual background , so the boss doesn't think I am on the beach in some tropical country. (I recently met some one in a hotel I was staying who did that for the winter months)

The prior example of needing to evacuate the state (hurricanes are enormous) is an example of why it might not always work. While it is a real use case for me, it's a bit extreme as most people don't have to go greater than 400 miles just to get out of the state. But when it is a sudden emergency that moves a great number of people; trains and planes quickly become booked and there's no other way out of dodge other that stop and go clogged highways. I really like the sound of Aptera's 1,000 mile battery and solar recharging for that scenario. ; -)

You raise a good point that some use cases like mine might be to small to sustain economical solutions.
Sadly there are no perfect solutions.
 

"Returning To Petrol": Volkswagen EV Sales Plunge 25% In Europe​


Europe is "returning to petrol", according to a new article from Yahoo Finance which highlighted Volkswagen's EV sales as the canary in the coalmine.

Sales of Volkswagen's electric vehicles have declined by nearly 25% in Europe, with a noticeable shift back to gasoline-powered cars amid waning interest in battery-operated models, the report says.

It notes that the downturn, observed in the initial quarter of the year, is attributed to heightened inflation and escalating energy costs, which have cooled consumer enthusiasm for electric cars. Worldwide, Volkswagen, which also owns brands like Audi, Skoda, and Porsche, saw a 3% decrease in electric vehicle sales, totaling 136,400 units. In contrast, sales of traditional combustion engine vehicles rose by 4%, approaching two million units.


The report notes that demand for electric vehicles has dipped as governments in Europe reduce subsidies and soften ambitious goals to phase out petrol and diesel cars.

In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed the prohibition of new petrol and diesel sales from 2030 to 2035 and removed incentives for new EV purchases last year. Despite Volkswagen's strong presence in the UK market with models like the Audi e-Tron and Volkswagen ID, petrol car demand is growing faster than electric.

In the EU, discussions are ongoing to modify bans on fossil fuel cars to permit synthetic fuels. The end of EV subsidies in Germany, coupled with the EU pausing emissions targets, has notably impacted Volkswagen's sales. Additionally, competition is intensifying with cheaper, subsidy-backed Chinese EVs entering the market.


Despite a significant drop in European EV sales, Volkswagen reported a 91% increase in China. Other manufacturers like BMW and Stellantis are also adjusting their electric vehicle strategies amid fluctuating consumer interest.

“Our diversified product portfolio gives us the necessary flexibility to compensate for fluctuations in demand in certain segments – as is currently the case with all-electric vehicles – in others,” said Hildegard Wortmann, a member of Volkswagen’s executive board.

Recall we have been writing about the influx of competition in EVs coming from China. Earlier this month, Mercedes-Benz boss Ola Källenius urged the EU to lower tariffs on EVs that are being imported from China. The call comes at the same time the European Commission is mulling whether to raise import duties as Europe continues to grapple with Chinese subsidies.

Källenius said that the increased competition would "help Europe’s carmakers produce better cars in the long run" and that government protectionism is "going the wrong way.

Källenius' comment is a free market slap in the face to the EU, which has claimed China is "distorting" the EV market. Recall back in September 2023 we wrote that the EU was opening an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies.

At the time, we noted that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was taking exception with the fact that "the global market is flooded with cheap Chinese cars".


Guess what China is using to generate electricity? (Coal!!!!)
(Did i mention that environmental pollution in China is off the scale?)
 
I agree with all of that. My guess is that fuel cells will still add extra weight, costs and complexity that could be covered more efficiently with batteries as they improve. To explain my motivation. I am not interested in driving more than 4 hours without having a break for food, toilet, stretching limbs and possibly a nap. This is why I have not been following the development in fuel cells as range and recharge time is a non isue for me personally. I do know people who can drive 48 hours with just stops to refuel and toilet breaks. Truck drivers can drive in shifts with one sleeping in the back. The question I don't know the answer to is if there are there enough people who want that to justify making those cars and modifying the infrastructure even if the hydrogen itself was virtually free. Today there might well be a case to be made for fuel cells, but will it make sense in 10 years time? My guess is that it won't be, but it is nothing more than a guess.

On top of all of that there is autonimous driving is going to change car ownership, you could argue that fuel cells might make sense if the cars were on the road 24*7. I expect that during the middle of the day the cars are just in parking lots where they could be charged during their idle time, possibly even with solar that covers those parking lots. Again, I am just guessing.

I am excited for the future and muting the useless noise does make for a better experience, thanks again for the tip.
OR, we could do like the Robert Heinlein book "The Roads Must Roll", and just like the airport walkways, make the roads roll and no engines needed at all.

Cool science fiction short story concept from the 1940's.
 

Water Vapor as a GHG​

Isn't water vapor an even more potent greenhouse gas than CO2?
Water vapor is indeed a lot more potent GHG than CO2 and it was one of the reasons I originally thought the other GHGs were noise and why it couldn't be real. It seemed to be the elephant that everyone ignored, CO2 measured in PPM and water in percent. There were also other big problems, every degree Celsius increase in air temperature, that warmer air can carry another 7% of water vapor making it get even warmer.

On the other hand, water vapor also cause global cooling with high albedo clouds or clouds can trap heat, or do both. Studies also show that water vapor feedback roughly doubles the amount of warming caused by CO2. So if there is a 1°C upward temperature change caused by CO2, the water vapor will cause the temperature to go up another 1°C. With all that you'd think we'd be doomed.

Took me a long time to find the answer. I'm not sure why it was so hard to find something real on it. But here's the long answer, the short answer is the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold is roughly limited by the temperature and usually has a very short half-life (e.g., the atmosphere can't hold more unless the planet warms up). Before going there, I'd recommend understanding the role altitude plays with GHGs from this video as just understanding the basics of how a greenhouse works isn't sufficient to getting a full view. There's also an exception @Bob B found where submerged volcanos kicked megatons of water into the upper atmosphere where it will take years to be eliminated because of the altitude.

Wouldn't fuel cells put a lot of water vapor in the air?
Great question!
Did the math (see below), it's about the same if you exhaust the water. But, as @Hedges and I have discussed, you can condense the water vapor to recycle (why not, it's easy, pure, cheap to do, and a precious commodity). Can't do it with gas because the additives are poisonous (not good to breathe either, but at least it's not lead anymore, see this ref for a very scary study).

Consider octane gives you 9 water (C8H18 + 13 O2 --> 8 CO2 + 9 H2O) for each molecule and that a fuel cell is roughly twice the efficiency of a gasoline engine (.6/.28). Hydrogen also has nearly three times the energy content of gasoline—120 MJ/kg for hydrogen versus 44 MJ/kg for gasoline.

For Math Lovers
Octane has a molecular weight of 114 and 1 mole would therefore weigh 114g and burned produce 9 moles of water. An equivalent amount of hydrogen would be 114 g Octane / (120 KJ/g H2 / 44 KJ/g Octane) x (.28/.6 efficiency) = ~19.5g H2. The molecular weight of hydrogen is 2, so that's 9.7 moles of H2. H2 + O2 --> H2O. So, 9.7 moles of water with hydrogen vs 9 moles of water from gasoline.
 
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[sea level rise]
Elevation is pretty high to be realistically measuring millimeters per year isn't it? All that video shows is a complete non-understanding of what's happening.

In the last 30 years, the sea has risen ~6" here (ref). Unfortunately, it's accelerating.
 

Water Vapor as a GHG​


Water vapor is indeed a lot more potent GHG than CO2 and it was one of the reasons I originally thought the other GHGs were noise and why it couldn't be real. It seemed to be the elephant that everyone ignored, CO2 measured in PPM and water in percent. There were also other big problems, every degree Celsius increase in air temperature, that warmer air can carry another 7% of water vapor making it get even warmer.

On the other hand, water vapor also cause global cooling with high albedo clouds or clouds can trap heat, or do both. Studies also show that water vapor feedback roughly doubles the amount of warming caused by CO2. So if there is a 1°C upward temperature change caused by CO2, the water vapor will cause the temperature to go up another 1°C. With all that you'd think we'd be doomed.

Took me a long time to find the answer. I'm not sure why it was so hard to find something real on it. But here's the long answer, the short answer is the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold is roughly limited by the temperature and usually has a very short half-life (e.g., the atmosphere can't hold more unless the planet warms up). Before going there, I'd recommend understanding the role altitude plays with GHGs from this video as just understanding the basics of how a greenhouse works isn't sufficient to getting a full view. There's also an exception @Bob B found where submerged volcanos kicked megatons of water into the upper atmosphere where it will take years to be eliminated because of the altitude.


Great question!
Did the math (see below), it's about the same if you exhaust the water. But, as @Hedges and I have discussed, you can condense the water vapor to recycle (why not, it's easy, pure, cheap to do, and a precious commodity). Can't do it with gas because the additives are poisonous (not good to breath either, but at least it's not lead anymore, see this ref for a very scary study).

Consider octane gives you 9 water (C8H18 + 13 O2 --> 8 CO2 + 9 H2O) for each molecule and that a fuel cell is roughly twice the efficiency of a gasoline engine (.6/.28). Hydrogen also has nearly three times the energy content of gasoline—120 MJ/kg for hydrogen versus 44 MJ/kg for gasoline.

For Math Lovers
Octane has a molecular weight of 114 and 1 mole would therefore weigh 114g and burned produce 9 moles of water. An equivalent amount of hydrogen would be 114 g Octane / (120 KJ/g H2 / 44 KJ/g Octane) x (.28/.6 efficiency) = ~19.5g H2. The molecular weight of hydrogen is 2, so that's 9.7 moles of H2. H2 + O2 --> H2O. So, 9.7 moles of water with hydrogen vs 9 moles of water from gasoline.

Well when your friends at the WEF manage to kill a great many of us off, you will not need to worry about that at all.

They do need to keep the cow farts however 'cause stake taste good
 
These people are lunatics. And everyone that supports them including several people here.

Claim: Climate Change is Driving Impoverished Californians to use “Predatory” Payday Loans to Pay Energy Bills​


Apparently if it wasn’t for climate change, we wouldn’t be having so much of this hot and cold weather which is stretching household finances in California.

Climate change driving demand for predatory loans, research shows
Study connects heatwaves and cold snaps to surges in payday lending, keeping people in debt and harming communities of color
Hilary Beaumont Mon 15 Apr 2024 20.00 AEST
Two competing payday loan stores stand on the corners of an intersection in south Los Angeles. An area of persistent poverty, south LA is also a banking desert where payday lenders fill the gap. Long lines form inside the stores on the first of the month, when rent is due.
Guillermina Molina, a 60-year-old retired housekeeper, visits the same Speedy Cash each month. During the summer months – which are becoming increasingly hot – she runs her air conditioner but frets about her utility bills. “It’s kind of hard because the [power bill] is coming up too high because you gotta have the air conditioner on,” Molina said.
During heatwaves, Molina’s daughter, Vanessa Vargas, checks in on her every day. “I don’t want to pull up to her house and find her [passed out] because of the heat,” she said.
Molina doesn’t have savings, so to cover her bills she takes out a $225 payday loan every month, paying $45 in interest on each loan. When she’s unable to pay back her loan on time, she’s charged extra. “There’s nothing left over,” Vargas said.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/15/predatory-loans-heatwaves-cold-snaps
Abstract of the study;

Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans
by Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie and Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of
low-income households. Using a novel dataset comprising individual-level payday loan
applications and loan-level information, we find that extreme temperature days—both hot and
cold—lead to surges in demand for payday loans. An increase in the number of days with
extreme heat results in an increase in delinquency and default rates and a reduction of total
credit issued, indicating a contraction in loan supply. These effects are especially noticeable for
online payday loans. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-
income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.
Read more: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/swp2024-1.pdf
California has some of the most expensive energy in the USA because of their green energy policies.

Regardless of whether you believe in future climate catastrophes, and whether California’s climate initiatives will have a global impact, right now it would be more accurate to say that climate policy rather than climate change is creating financial hardship for low income Californians.
 

Did UAE's Cloud-Seeding Operation Flood Dubai?​

How it started with UAE's cloud seeding operations:

How it's going:


Thread of best videos I've been sent of the current situation in Dubai from the storm. pic.twitter.com/sK6aRL6Jdu
— Charles Read (@chatwithcharles) April 16, 2024
Not so well...

#VIDEO: Severe rain and flooding in #Dubai today
pic.twitter.com/9Auyq5MyDA
— Saudi Gazette (@Saudi_Gazette) April 16, 2024
All inbound flights to Dubai International Airport were diverted on Tuesday evening.

We are temporarily diverting arriving flights this evening until the weather conditions improve. Departures will continue to operate.

Together with our partners, we’re working to restore normal operations and minimise inconvenience to you.

Follow @DXB for further updates.
— DXB (@DXB) April 16, 2024
"It's certainly not just cloud seeding. The convective clouds that are associated with the sorts of stormy weather we're facing form entirely naturally," UAE news website What's On said.

Perhaps the government playing God by fiddling with Mother Nature has unintended consequences...
 
These people are lunatics. And everyone that supports them including several people here.

Claim: Climate Change is Driving Impoverished Californians to use “Predatory” Payday Loans to Pay Energy Bills​


Apparently if it wasn’t for climate change, we wouldn’t be having so much of this hot and cold weather which is stretching household finances in California.


Abstract of the study;


California has some of the most expensive energy in the USA because of their green energy policies.

Regardless of whether you believe in future climate catastrophes, and whether California’s climate initiatives will have a global impact, right now it would be more accurate to say that climate policy rather than climate change is creating financial hardship for low income Californians.
Yeah, now the weather is racist too. These people are mentally ill.
 

Did UAE's Cloud-Seeding Operation Flood Dubai?​

How it started with UAE's cloud seeding operations:

How it's going:



Not so well...


All inbound flights to Dubai International Airport were diverted on Tuesday evening.


"It's certainly not just cloud seeding. The convective clouds that are associated with the sorts of stormy weather we're facing form entirely naturally," UAE news website What's On said.

Perhaps the government playing God by fiddling with Mother Nature has unintended consequences...
Look out for space lasers setting fires. Probably true too. Israel and USA was playing with them.

The scientist that get to do this with no repercussions and make money love it. Imagine getting to kill someone and not being held accountable. About like wars.
 
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