Future of DIY LiFePO4 looks bleak…

[Sanwizard]

I still build my own Pc's, built my tiny house, framing, wiring, plumbing, doors windows, roof, change my oil and all other fluids, and the car parts that are possible to change myself, built my electric bike and battery..And am building a 48 volt 280AH pack right now..The cost savings of all of those things and hundreds more is worth the trade in time for me..But, everyone is different..Although, despite what alot of people think, we are headed for a crash..The evidence is absolutely everywhere..Being as self sufficient as possible now, will possibly give you a head start..Understanding how things work and developing the ability to build stuff, maintain systems and equipment is priceless...Building my own PC's led to me building them for other people, which led to me learning about Bitcoin, and mining Bitcoin, very early on..And now all my time is free time, as a result...

Yeah baby! Building gaming PC's is fun. I paid 2.5 bitcoin for my Alienware laptop in early 2017( bitcoin at $600 at the time). Its now the most expensive laptop on the planet. ?

Bought my house with Ethereum in 2022.
Crypto has been good to me. I dumped my entire 401K into crypto in 2016. Its not for the weak hearted, but if you can hang on for the ride, its fun.

 

[RebelRob]

Oh really? Looks kinda pretty to me, a shame to have to close the doors.


View attachment 166592View attachment 166593



Cost $11K complete to build the battery. Using a well known server rack battery for same capacity would be close to $20K.

And mine looks better.

I prefer the look of those blue bars of gold myself, Chinese dynamism juice, it's the look of competence, frugality, and has it's own artistic flair unique to every builder..And that's a nice one..

 

[FilterGuy]

That does look nice. are they 15Cell pack? was that driven by the cabinet size?

 

[hwy17]

@Zwy What is that cabinet exactly? It's the best one I've ever seen.

 

[fafrd]

There are many different reasons to DIY a battery so some people will be DIYing LiFePO4 batteries for the forseeable future. However, the prices and quality for pre-built batteries are now low enough that a lot of people no longer build their own.

I am no longer building my own. The price differential is just not high enough to justify the hassle of putting it all together. Furthermore, unless you buy a purpose built case to hold it all, the result of DIY always has a rather kludgy look. Other people will weigh the costs and pros/cons different than I do and make different decisions. (That does not make either of us wrong... it just means we have different value sets)

I think it is safe to say the a lot of people that would have built their own battery 2 years ago would not do it today. It is also safe to say that trend will continue. Early in this thread I made a comparison to DIY PCs. It used to be much cheaper to build your own PC ....and many of us did it. Fast forward to today and the DIY PC space is just a shadow of what it used to be. The off-the-shelf PC prices and functionality are good enough that few people bother building their own unless they have a very specific need.

A much more thoughtful way of making the point I’ve been trying to make since I started the thread.

There will always be a community of DIYers assembling their own LiFePO4 batteries, either for special requirements, because they love it, or to save a few bucks.

But as a % of overall LiFePO4 owners, that percentage is already shrinking and if the absolute number of DIYers is not yet shrinking, the cost trend means that it’s only a matter of time…

 

[fafrd]

Oh really? Looks kinda pretty to me, a shame to have to close the doors.


View attachment 166592View attachment 166593



Cost $11K complete to build the battery. Using a well known server rack battery for same capacity would be close to $20K.

And mine looks better.

15 x 4 x 896Wh = 53,760Wh.

$11,000.00 / 53,760Wh = $0.2046/Wh.

This EG4 30,720kWh server rack battery may not have the full capacity you need, but at $8703, it’s $0.2833/Wh, or only 138% of the cost per Wh that you paid: https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-life...enclosed-rack-with-door-wheels-busbar-covers/

And when we revisit a year from now, we’ll see that that cost per Wh is even lower.

The point of this thread is not that we’re already at the point where DIY LiFePO4 does not make sense for any use-case.

The point is that that is the future we are headed towards.

It seems likely that for certain pedestrian use-cases, such as generic 12V 100Ah LiFePO4 batteries with vanilla specifications, we may already be there, but the main point is that that trend will inexorably continue, absorbing more and more use cases with each passing year.

I don’t know the history of lead-acid batteries, but it would not surprise me to learn that in the early days, people made their own (as in from chemicals & metals).

And for all I know there may still be a few DIYers making their own LA batteries today.

But hopefully we can all agree that that that hobby / use-case is not growing and it’s future became bleak a long, long time ago.

We’ll get there as well, but how long it will take and where we are along that multi-decade trajectory is certainly something we can debate…

 

[FilterGuy]

Not only to free up for EV usage, in fact nearly half the Tesla produced recently use LFP battery.
I can't wait for those high quality LFP cells to hit the scrapyard ?

If the cells are in the new structural pack they are going to be a lot of work to get out of the pack for DIY reuse

 

[Ampster]

But as a % of overall LiFePO4 owners, that percentage is already shrinking and if the absolute number of DIYers is not yet shrinking, the cost trend means that it’s only a matter of time…

I don't know where you are getting your numbers. I do think the denominator (overall LFT owners) is growing and it may be growing faster than the DIY segment. Do we even know the numbers of DIY battery installations?. That would be the trend to follow. For example the Tesla Powerwall3 will be LFP and more and more of the rack mount batteries are coming out with LFPs so the market for LFP batteries may just be growing faster than the DIY segment. That would not suggest that the future for DIY looks bleak but is not growing as fast as the overall market. It all depends on where you are standing?

 

[BuffaloTrace]

15 x 4 x 896Wh = 53,760Wh.

$11,000.00 / 53,760Wh = $0.2046/Wh.

This EG4 30,720kWh server rack battery may not have the full capacity you need, but at $8703, it’s $0.2833/Wh, or only 138% of the cost per Wh that you paid: https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-life...enclosed-rack-with-door-wheels-busbar-covers/

And when we revisit a year from now, we’ll see that that cost per Wh is even lower.

The point of this thread is not that we’re already at the point where DIY LiFePO4 does not make sense for any use-case.

The point is that that is the future we are headed towards.

It seems likely that for certain pedestrian use-cases, such as generic 12V 100Ah LiFePO4 batteries with vanilla specifications, we may already be there, but the main point is that that trend will inexorably continue, absorbing more and more use cases with each passing year.

I don’t know the history of lead-acid batteries, but it would not surprise me to learn that in the early days, people made their own (as in from chemicals & metals).

And for all I know there may still be a few DIYers making their own LA batteries today.

But hopefully we can all agree that that that hobby / use-case is not growing and it’s future became bleak a long, long time ago.

We’ll get there as well, but how long it will take and where we are along that multi-decade trajectory is certainly something we can debate…

It's 16s.

 

[fafrd]

I don't know where you are getting your numbers. I do think the denominator (overall LFT owners) is growing and it may be growing faster than the DIY segment.

I thought that is exactly what I posted…. I went back to correct a typo but cannot find one, so thanks to point out what I wrote that caused your confusion.

Do we even know the numbers of DIY battery installations?. That would be the trend to follow. For example the Tesla Powerwall3 will be LFP and more and more of the rack mount batteries are coming out with LFPs so the market for LFP batteries may just be growing faster than the DIY segment.

Yes, it’s a near-certainty that we are already there today…

That would not suggest that the future for DIY looks bleak but is not growing as fast as the overall market. It all depends on where you are standing?

As I stated, in the future (not yet today), the absolute number of new DIY LiFePO4 builders will be shrinking.

The price trend we are seeing makes that inevitable (the only debate is how many years / decades to reach that future, not whether we’ll get there or not…

 

[fafrd]

It's 16s.

That’ll change the cost / Wh a bit, but how come I and others count 15 cells across???

 

[fafrd]

I don’t know the history of lead-acid batteries, but it would not surprise me to learn that in the early days, people made their own (as in from chemicals & metals).

And for all I know there may still be a few DIYers making their own LA batteries today.

Looks like DIY Lead Acid batteries is a thing (who knew ):

But hopefully we can all agree that that that hobby / use-case is not growing and it’s future became bleak a long, long time ago.

 

[BuffaloTrace]

That’ll change the cost / Wh a bit, but how come I and others count 15 cells across???

Because regrettably, you did not read the build thread and/or did not look very closely at the photos.

 

[BuffaloTrace]

However, I think the future of Diy is here to stay, and agree with previous reasons given. I also add that there will always be the next up and coming or new that one can diy with more "value" than profit driven business allows.

 

[wattmatters]

That’ll change the cost / Wh a bit, but how come I and others count 15 cells across???

I count 16. The cell on the far right is mostly hidden but you can just see the edge of it.

 

[Zwy]

That does look nice. are they 15Cell pack? was that driven by the cabinet size?

16 cells. Batrium CORE bms with 4 K9's. I'm very pleased with the whole battery bank.

Build was here: https://diysolarforum.com/threads/the-big-blue-box.55099/

 

[Zwy]

@Zwy What is that cabinet exactly? It's the best one I've ever seen.

Hoffman electrical cabinet, purchased off FB Marketplace an hour from here for $200.

I like the setup so much I might build another bank for the shop.

 

[Ampster]

but how come I and others count 15 cells across???

The camera angle blocks the view of the last call on the right. I had to enlarge the photo to see part of it in the picture.

 

[wattmatters]

I looked at local LiFePO4 suppliers and best I could do for 16 x 100 Ah cells was A$2,064. Most suppliers charge A$2,500-2,700.
Just cells. No cables, BMS, box, busbars, display, terminals, hardware, breaker, insulation or holders/compression. The price per Ah does not improve much with larger cells.

Meanwhile I can buy a Jakiper rack mount battery of same capacity for A$2,500, or A$2,300 with a current discount code, and have it delivered in three days. Plug it in and that's it. Done.

No chance I could build a battery with locally supplied cells for less. I would have to import from China, wait for months and take my chances.

 

[Zwy]

15 x 4 x 896Wh = 53,760Wh.

$11,000.00 / 53,760Wh = $0.2046/Wh.

I have 3 batteries that are 280Ah cells and one that is 304Ah cells (that tested over 310Ah).

These are 16 cell batteries.

It's just shy of 55Kwh. 54,912 to be exact. That comes to $0.200032/Wh

I could have shaved a few grand off using a different BMS but I decided I wanted the Batrium. I could have probably done this easily for $9500.

This EG4 30,720kWh server rack battery may not have the full capacity you need, but at $8703, it’s $0.2833/Wh, or only 138% of the cost per Wh that you paid: https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-life...enclosed-rack-with-door-wheels-busbar-covers/https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-life...enclosed-rack-with-door-wheels-busbar-covers/

It's about 145% more per Wh. If using a cheaper BMS, it would be much higher.

And when we revisit a year from now, we’ll see that that cost per Wh is even lower.

The point of this thread is not that we’re already at the point where DIY LiFePO4 does not make sense for any use-case.

The point is that that is the future we are headed towards.

I think I'll still build my own. Once the size of the bank scales up in capacity, the savings of DIY become much more apparent. If only a few 100Ah batteries are needed, then it makes sense to purchase manufactured batteries. Larger systems are where DIY will still be more economical due to scale.

 

[Zwy]

I count 16. The cell on the far right is mostly hidden but you can just see the edge of it.

The reason the cells are to the right is the sidewall of the cabinet is part of the compression fixture. The threaded rods poke thru the right side.

 

[Zwy]

I looked at local LiFePO4 suppliers and best I could do for 16 x 100 Ah cells was A$2,064. Most suppliers charge A$2,500-2,700.
Just cells. No cables, BMS, box, busbars, display, terminals, hardware, breaker, insulation or holders/compression. The price per Ah does not improve much with larger cells.

Meanwhile I can buy a Jakiper rack mount battery of same capacity for A$2,500, or A$2,300 with a current discount code, and have it delivered in three days. Plug it in and that's it. Done.

No chance I could build a battery with locally supplied cells for less. I would have to import from China, wait for months and take my chances.

This is what it cost me for the 304Ah cells from 18650 Battery Store shipped to my door in 3 days.

EVE LF304 Grade B Cells - 3.2V LiFePO4 304Ah Battery × 16 $2,160.00​

Subtotal $2,160.00​ Shipping $153.69​ Taxes $0.00​ Total $2,313.69 USD​

 

[fafrd]

The reason the cells are to the right is the sidewall of the cabinet is part of the compression fixture. The threaded rods poke thru the right side. View attachment 166654

That’s a very nice design, by the way.

 

[yabert]

If the cells are in the new structural pack they are going to be a lot of work to get out of the pack for DIY reuse

I still expect to see tesla LFP battery in person or more pictures, but based on what Monro show us 2 years ago they will build from prismatic cells.
In fact, 4 modules of around 15 kWh each.

 

[BuffaloTrace]

Almost got a free steel cabinet today, albeit smaller, but when I showed up it was just too dented up, and would have taken a bit of work. There are heaps of things to be had for free. I have a guy at a tech place in town just waiting to give me a 6ft tall enclosed server rack when he gets one and ill use that.
The whole deal with Diy is one can recycle, or reuse a lot of random stuff that otherwise is a significant cost of the pre-builts. And looking towards the future I see a lot more of this "stuff" coming onto market, at cheap or free, especially depending on region and where one lives. wire, cabinets, shelving, etc can be had for nothing if one has a little time and a lot of patience.