"Ford secures battery supplies for 600,000 EVs a year from 2023"

[eXodus]

So what you're saying is EV sales in the USA will grow from under 0.7 million a year to ~13 million a year in a little over 5 years. I'm having a hard time believing that sort of growth rate.

Sandy Monro's prediction, not mine https://leandesign.com/

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Transition-from-horse-drawn-carriages-to-petrol-cars-in-the-1920s-data-originally-from_fig1_236202800

You see the beginning of an exponential growth curve there?

Ford is preparing for that with securing 600.000 batteries for cars next year.

Norway just closed last year 86% of all new vehicles EV. Their goal is to be no new ICE vehicles by 2025 - but the consumer is making it easy and they probably achieve it next year or already 2024.

 

[Danke]

what does NMC, LFP MME mean. not allreaders are hip

NMC: Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide Batteries​

LFP: Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries​

NMC are used a lot in EVs because more dense, so less weight/space needed to produce equivalent capacity of LFP (LifePO4)

The Tesla fires in the news are NMC batteries. LifePO4 are much safer. And starting to be used more in EVs.

 

[tigerwillow1]

I'm surprised this thread is still going, considering the emotions these subjects tend to bring out.

I'll be surprised if it or some replacement thread ever finishes. As with so many things the majority of the country is divided into two extremes: (1) EVs are the solution for the environment and will take over the market, or (2) EVs aren't practical and will be a flop, causing all sorts of environmental problems in the process. There's only a minority in the middle realizing that EVs are quite practical in some situations and totally impractical in other situations for the foreseeable future. We wouldn't be so polarized if market forces could work instead of the government figuratively shoving EVs down everybody's' throats. If they're as good as claimed, people will be clamoring to get them instead of resenting being pushed. I can easily see how an EV works well for urban dwellers who can charge at home. For me a plug-in hybrid would the best configuration. I had one on my short list before buying a car last year, except I don't want an NMC battery in my attached garage.

 

[eXodus]

(1) EVs are the solution for the environment and will take over the market,

EVs are the lesser evil. Unnecessary commuting and car dependent city designs are the true villain's

EVs are still terrible compared with a E-Bike in a People friendly designed City. But most of North America has Car Friendly Cities. It's slowly changing some master planned communities see the benefit.

A EV needs 5000 lbs of resources to drive around ONE 150-200lbs human. Instead to use for the same tasks - a 50lbs E-bike. We are talking 100X of efficiency to gain.

 

[wattmatters]

You see the beginning of an exponential growth curve there?

Yes, however, are the supply chains going to keep up with that sort of growth over the next 5 years?
Exponential trends are way easier to maintain in the early stages. It gets significantly more challenging each year. The other charts you show are more like a typical sigmoid function, which looks exponential in the early stages for a while but flatten out. Why they flatten is the issue at hand.

Don't get me wrong, I agree the transition is happening, I just don't think it will be as fast as many think.

Norway just closed last year 86% of all new vehicles EV. Their goal is to be no new ICE vehicles by 2025 - but the consumer is making it easy and they probably achieve it next year or already 2024.

Norway is a great example of a government regulatory and taxation regime being used to drive a transition. Will the same be true of the USA?

Norway's tax and incentive structure makes ICE vehicles more expensive than their EV counterpart. So it's little wonder people choose the cheaper EV option.

It's the other way round is the USA (and Australia) where EVs carry a significant price premium over an ICEV alternative.

Norway buys ~ 150,000 cars per year (just 1% of the cars bought each year in the USA). Scale matters.
Norway charges a vehicle tailpipe emissions tax.
Norway does not charge any import tax on EVs, which are applied to ICEVs.
Norway does not charge 25% VAT on EVs, which is applied to ICEV.
Norway does not charge road taxes for EVs, which are applied to ICEV.
Norway does not charge road tolls for EV, which are applied to ICEV.
Norway reduces company car tax by 50% for EVs.
Norway's governments are required to purchase only zero (tailpipe) emissions vehicles.
Norway provides more favourable parking arrangements and lane access arrangements to EVs.
Norway invested heavily in EV charging infrastructure.

Also, 96% of Norway's electricity is generated by hydroelectric power plants. Highly dispatchable, lots of capacity, very low emissions.

How many of the above are going to apply in the USA?

 

[cs1234]

EVs are the lesser evil. Unnecessary commuting and car dependent city designs are the true villain's

EVs are still terrible compared with a E-Bike in a People friendly designed City. But most of North America has Car Friendly Cities. It's slowly changing some master planned communities see the benefit.

A EV needs 5000 lbs of resources to drive around ONE 150-200lbs human. Instead to use for the same tasks - a 50lbs E-bike. We are talking 100X of efficiency to gain.

You haven't been watching Not Just Bikes have you? If not, I'm sure you'll love it.

Our cities, especially here in Texas are so far from being people friendly and walkable it isn't even funny.

An ebike is super efficient for moving a single person, from overall materials used and such, but it isn't going to be a solution that would be accepted without riots. I was just outside for 30 minutes fiddling with a bluetti eb3a I just received to test something out, at 7pm at night, in shade, in and out of my garage and I'm drenched in sweat and have to take a shower or my wife will kick me out of bed tonight.

I don't necessarily mind the heat, it doesn't outright hurt me, like it does some people who are sensitive too it, but you can't commute to an office job and expect to have everybody be pleasant after a 15-30 minute ride in those conditions. We would have to shower when we get there, shower when we get home, shower, shower shower! Plus heat makes people angry, and we don't need more angry people in this world.

 

[SparkyJJO]

Not a plus in my book. Big brother will shut you off is you social score is low.

You will own nothing and be happy about it.

Or some such nonsense.

You haven't been watching Not Just Bikes have you? If not, I'm sure you'll love it.

Our cities, especially here in Texas are so far from being people friendly and walkable it isn't even funny.

An ebike is super efficient for moving a single person, from overall materials used and such, but it isn't going to be a solution that would be accepted without riots. I was just outside for 30 minutes fiddling with a bluetti eb3a I just received to test something out, at 7pm at night, in shade, in and out of my garage and I'm drenched in sweat and have to take a shower or my wife will kick me out of bed tonight.

I don't necessarily mind the heat, it doesn't outright hurt me, like it does some people who are sensitive too it, but you can't commute to an office job and expect to have everybody be pleasant after a 15-30 minute ride in those conditions. We would have to shower when we get there, shower when we get home, shower, shower shower! Plus heat makes people angry, and we don't need more angry people in this world.

Hah. That's a reason I don't drive my toy to the office as often as I'd like. The AC quit years ago so if it is hot or muggy in the morning, well forget it. Afternoon back home isn't as big a deal, I'll be showering later anyway.

 

[cs1234]

I had to stop driving convertibles because my thinning hair couldn't protect my head enough anymore, and hats in convertibles suck. I also found that in the city, it's just too dirty and gross these days. If you drive a convertible around, you just feel nasty as heck from all the crap sticking to your skin. It didn't seem that bad 25 years ago or so, when I first started driving a convertible.. but then I picked one up again (you know the story, old man, wants car of youth) and it was just awful.

 

[Miles B]

Not even gonna read you're posting you obviously liked to argue. I have over 3 kW of solar that runs my AC during the day. So we'll leave it at that go do your thing and stop bothering me

Run and hide, baby.

 

[Miles B]

I'll be surprised if it or some replacement thread ever finishes. As with so many things the majority of the country is divided into two extremes: (1) EVs are the solution for the environment and will take over the market, or (2) EVs aren't practical and will be a flop, causing all sorts of environmental problems in the process. There's only a minority in the middle realizing that EVs are quite practical in some situations and totally impractical in other situations for the foreseeable future. We wouldn't be so polarized if market forces could work instead of the government figuratively shoving EVs down everybody's' throats. If they're as good as claimed, people will be clamoring to get them instead of resenting being pushed. I can easily see how an EV works well for urban dwellers who can charge at home. For me a plug-in hybrid would the best configuration. I had one on my short list before buying a car last year, except I don't want an NMC battery in my attached garage.

People ARE clamoring to get them. Have you not noticed the huge waiting lines for most models? Ford has already sold years of the F150. Tesla has waiting lines for every one of their poorly engineered models. Hyundai. Porsche. VW. Everyone. Taking deposits. What does it tell you when people are lapping up disgustingly built cars like Teslas as fast as they can build new factories to turn them out?

EVs are not "quite practical in some situations". They are practical in the majority of situations.

 

[cs1234]

People ARE clamoring to get them. Have you not noticed the huge waiting lines for most models? Ford has already sold years of the F150. Tesla has waiting lines for every one of their poorly engineered models. Hyundai. Porsche. VW. Everyone. Taking deposits. What does it tell you when people are lapping up disgustingly built cars like Teslas as fast as they can build new factories to turn them out?

EVs are not "quite practical in some situations". They are practical in the majority of situations.

Every one of those companies knew it was coming, they just didn't want to be the first to crack their golden goose egg they already had going. Teslas supposedly have crap build quality, but it was still good enough to kick all the other automakers in the jimmy. It helps that Tesla went the performance route, instead of the Prius type of route. If they had gone Prius style they wouldn't have caught on nearly as well.

 

[tigerwillow1]

They are practical in the majority of situations.

This an example of the extreme polarization I see. In the area where I live, more than half the population takes one or more ~200 mile treks over a mountain pass during the winter. When there's an accident or spun-out vehicle the highway can be stopped for hours with hundreds of cars backed up. All those people in EVs will have to choose between freezing or running out their battery, and if there are enough disabled EVs it wouldn't surprise me if it took days to clear the road.

 

[73powerstroke]

Run and hide, baby.

You don't quit do you. Tough behind a keyboard

 

[73powerstroke]

I had to stop driving convertibles because my thinning hair couldn't protect my head enough anymore, and hats in convertibles suck. I also found that in the city, it's just too dirty and gross these days. If you drive a convertible around, you just feel nasty as heck from all the crap sticking to your skin. It didn't seem that bad 25 years ago or so, when I first started driving a convertible.. but then I picked one up again (you know the story, old man, wants car of youth) and it was just awful.

Same with motorcycle. Smell all the nasty crap .feel dirty after a few hours ride.

 

[Miles B]

This an example of the extreme polarization I see. In the area where I live, more than half the population takes one or more ~200 mile treks over a mountain pass during the winter. When there's an accident or spun-out vehicle the highway can be stopped for hours with hundreds of cars backed up. All those people in EVs will have to choose between freezing or running out their battery, and if there are enough disabled EVs it wouldn't surprise me if it took days to clear the road.

I didn't say "every". The vast majority of car usage patterns in the US fit EVs. My point was to correct "some" to "most". The studies are done, it's clear data. There is no reason to not move away from oil asap.

 

[cs1234]

This an example of the extreme polarization I see. In the area where I live, more than half the population takes one or more ~200 mile treks over a mountain pass during the winter. When there's an accident or spun-out vehicle the highway can be stopped for hours with hundreds of cars backed up. All those people in EVs will have to choose between freezing or running out their battery, and if there are enough disabled EVs it wouldn't surprise me if it took days to clear the road.

It's an out of sight out of mind sort of a thing. We are used to what we deal with regularly. I wouldn't ever think about trying to pass over a 200 mile mountain pass in the winter, because I don't want to die like that.

Using special exceptions like that when we are dealing with overall generalizations for EV suitability is a regular problem in discussions. Exceptions should be handled with other exceptions, but not be allowed to distract from the overall point.

Probably 50-80% of the American population

Spoiler: American exceptionalism

(you might not even be American, but we Americans only think of everything as an American issue)

lives, in or around a major metro and doesn't have to pass over 200 mile snow filled death traps routinely. The majority of commuting Americans could easily use an EV instead of an ICE and have few problems once some proper charging infrastructure is in place for people without houses/garages. People are often fools though, they even manage to run out of gas with gas stations everywhere. Ever run into somebody with poor man itis? They always put $10 or $20 in their tank, using cash, inside the gas station, because that's what they had to do when they were broke? Now they are rolling in dough but still do that dumb crap?

edit.. @tigerwillow1 I don't mean to say you are being obnoxious, or disingenuous .. Your example is a valid one, but it's clearly a special use case. rewording the insulting language so as not to insult..

Take the cold trip example of yours.. we are on a solar panel forum, let's think creatively, even if the solutions might seem silly or inconvenient. EV's could be replaced with hybrids in those areas of extreme conditions. Or, those people could bring electric blankets.. a 70kwh battery pack can run a small 20-30 watt electric blanket for some time. Would it be uncomfortable? Sure. But a regular car can run out of gas sitting in the cold as well. Alternatively, maybe a small back of car mounted propane or gas generator could be brought as a safety device during dangerous trips through snow covered mountain passes.

 

[Miles B]

Also, in the next 5-10 years, battery energy density will increase to the point where those use cases are covered too. By the time we next switch vehicles, there will be a suitable EV for virtually everyone.

 

[Danke]

For me a plug-in hybrid would the best configuration. I had one on my short list before buying a car last year, except I don't want an NMC battery in my attached garage.

I’d like a plug-in hybrid that has a large battery. And made with stainless steal, at least the lower portion. Rust is a killer where I live, and heating a car in winter kills the range of an EV.

 

[cs1234]

I’d like a plug-in hybrid that has a large battery. And made with stainless steal, at least the lower portion. Rust is a killer where I live, and heating a car in winter kills the range of an EV.

Just get an electric blanket already!

 

[Danke]

Also, in the next 5-10 years, battery energy density will increase to the point where those use cases are covered too. By the time we next switch vehicles, there will be a suitable EV for virtually everyone.

And everyone will have flying EV cars by then too!