California Members: NEM3.0 impact on NEM1/2 customers and what to do?

[HuntersCrackpipe]

Who here is good with data & math?

I called PG&E solar support about my questions above and they said they didn't know, so they referred me to email the "interconnection dept"... and I'm waiting to hear back.

In the interim, I'm curious about something: Supposedly, just adding 10% or 1kW more would cause a customer to get bumped out of NEM 1.0.

So, it got me wondering... would it be better to be in NEM 1 for 8 more years, or "lock in" NEM 2 for 20 more years? For simple math, let's assume a 5kW system is moved from NEM 1 to NEM 2. How would you quantify the pros/cons of keeping that system in NEM 1 for 8 years vs NEM 2 for 20 years?

... hopefully that makes sense?

PG&E escalated my question to "leadership" whoever that is. I referenced the NEM 2.0 legacy provisions in the following document (page 26):

https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_NEM2.pdf

Customers served on Schedule NEM, NEMV, or NEMVMASH who elect to make a one-time switch to the corresponding NEM-2 Schedule prior to the conclusion of their Schedule NEM, NEMV or NEMVMASH 20-year transition period can continue service under the corresponding NEM-2 Schedule from the date of their original Schedule NEM, NEMV or NEMVMASH PTO date; these Customers may not restart their 20-year transition period by electing to move to this Schedule.

Modifications. REGFs eligible for the 20-year transition period outlined above that are modified and/or repaired shall remain eligible for the remainder of their 20-year transition period as long as the modifications and/or repairs do not increase the REGF by more than the greater of: 1) 10 percent of the REGF’s nameplate rating capacity, as established when the REGF was originally interconnected, or 2) 1 kW; and provided the modifications and/or repairs do not result in the REGF exceeding the Customer’s annual onsite load.

PG&E confirmed that if you are NEM 1.0 and want to start NEM 2.0 with a 20 year "grandfathering" period you must remove the original system, and submit your new application for the new system as a "new generation facility" as opposed to "upgrading existing generation facility" in the portal. If you do not remove the old system it will be considered an add-on system and you will be moved to NEM 2.0 for the remainder of your original period from your initial PTO date. By adding another system that exceeds 10 percent of the residential electric generating facilities rated capacity you are automatically moved to NEM 2.0 for the remainder of your NEM period, if you do not exceed 10% then you stay on NEM 1.0 for the remainder of your period. I have to remove an old 2 kw system from 2007 and then install the new 12 kw system in order to go to NEM 2.0 for 20 years. PG&E will tell you that adding a new system alongside your existing system starts a new NEM 2.0 period for 20 years, they tell the solar companies the same thing so I can't blame them, but that is clearly not the case and was clarified when I escalated the issue.

 

[HuntersCrackpipe]

If you terminate your NEM system?

And the next day file an agreement for an NEM 2.0 system?

Consider a less extreme case. You purchased a house and refused to assume the rooftop PV lease. Seller paid termination fee and system was removed. You later install a customer-owned system. When does your 20 years start?

Yes. PG&E confirmed that in order to gandfather into NEM 2.0 for 20 years I need to remove my old 2 kw system from 2007 and submit the application as a "new generation facility" not an upgrade, otherwise I would move to NEM 2.0 for the remainder (2027) of the original NEM period.

Customers served on Schedule NEM, NEMV, or NEMVMASH who elect to make a one-time switch to the corresponding NEM-2 Schedule prior to the conclusion of their Schedule NEM, NEMV or NEMVMASH 20-year transition period can continue service under the corresponding NEM-2 Schedule from the date of their original Schedule NEM, NEMV or NEMVMASH PTO date; these Customers may not restart their 20-year transition period by electing to move to this Schedule.

 

[Calvin98]

you must remove the original system, and submit your new application for the new system as a "new generation facility"

Am I correct in thinking that this means removing the panels and inverter and replacing with new panels and inverter? AC wires, mounts, etc. can be reused? Plus whatever you need to meet new code liek RSD devices if installed on roof? Do you need RSD (rapid shut down) on top of pole mounts?

 

[Hedges]

I don't know it is physical. Disconnecting wires from PV breaker and telling PG&E you're withdrawing from NEM 1.0 agreement ought to be sufficient.
But reconnecting requires everything to current NEC, CEC, etc. rules.

And then you will find all the permit office changes. Another guy in my city (San Jose) learned they check permit history, want to see last re-roof was signed off, etc. before allowing panels on it. (In my case, I was allowed small non-permitted structures, but he said they now require proof of weight carrying capacity.)

Can of worms.

 

[Hedges]

What is that deal, again, that is offered if we voluntarily dive in to NEM 3.0?

Let's say I'm just a couple months from being slammed into 3.0
Better to "Volunteer", if I'm given a large enlistment bonus?
I think it is some kind of credit related to batteries.

 

[Calvin98]

I don't know it is physical. Disconnecting wires from PV breaker and telling PG&E you're withdrawing from NEM 1.0 agreement ought to be sufficient.
But reconnecting requires everything to current NEC, CEC, etc. rules.

And then you will find all the permit office changes. Another guy in my city (San Jose) learned they check permit history, want to see last re-roof was signed off, etc. before allowing panels on it. (In my case, I was allowed small non-permitted structures, but he said they now require proof of weight carrying capacity.)

Can of worms.

Sure. "Out of the fire and into the frying pan"? or "The lesser of two evils"? or some other idiom?
At least you can go to the county and they should be able to tell you exactly what is needed before you do anything.

 

[Calvin98]

What is the strategy for NEM 3?
You get little to nothing for feeding power into the grid, so best to not do it.
Use as much PV power as you can during the day when you have solar. I.e run A/C, pool pumps, dryers, etc. during the day.
Store excess daily solar in batteries and use it at night.
Re do the same thing the next day?

Since peak hrs are 4-9 for us, maybe add WEST facing panels to get more power in the afternoon and therefore maybe need a little less battery storage? I think the sun sets at about 8pm in August, so you could still be producing some peak power from 4-7pm maybe,

Hard to keep up with all the strategies for these ever changing rules.

So you have to have PV and batteries that can supply you with enough power for the hottest day in the summer? Meaning lots more solar panels and really big batteries?

Of course then if we have to do all of this, then you have to think why we are even connected to the grid at all. Maybe best to go off grid completely (assuming you can)?

Why not have the utility have the batteries that all can use? Seems like a few hundred or a few thousand batteries on the grid might be better than having 14.5 million households in Ca each have their own battery, say 20KWH battery pack.

 

[fafrd]

What is the strategy for NEM 3?
You get little to nothing for feeding power into the grid, so best to not do it.
Use as much PV power as you can during the day when you have solar. I.e run A/C, pool pumps, dryers, etc. during the day.
Store excess daily solar in batteries and use it at night.
Re do the same thing the next day?

Since peak hrs are 4-9 for us, maybe add WEST facing panels to get more power in the afternoon and therefore maybe need a little less battery storage? I think the sun sets at about 8pm in August, so you could still be producing some peak power from 4-7pm maybe,

Hard to keep up with all the strategies for these ever changing rules.

So you have to have PV and batteries that can supply you with enough power for the hottest day in the summer? Meaning lots more solar panels and really big batteries?

You need to build an array sized to offset 150% of annual consumption (as NEM 3.0 allows) and you need a battery sized to offset average overnight consumption.

Even at the reduced export rates during highest-production hours of the day, you’ll generate enough daily power to offset 100% of daily consumption 9 months out of the year and the paltry $/kWh you are paid fir the remaining overgeneration you export should be enough to offset most of your consumption costs over winter.

All in all, it’s too bad once you factor in how much cheaper solar panels have become since the ‘early days’.

 

[Calvin98]

You need to build an array sized to offset 150% of annual consumption (as NEM 3.0 allows) and you need a battery sized to offset average overnight consumption.

Thanks! That is easy to understand!

The strategy with NEM 1 was that you could get a much smaller system and still be net 0. With time of use from noon to 6pm weekdays, you would generate as much power as you could during peak hrs and then use it at night. For every 1kwh put in at peak you got 32 cents, then at night you could take out 3 1/2kwh and be even. 8.5 cents x 3 1/2 = 32.

NEM3 and peak/offpeak rates almost the same makes that not work. Now you have to use as much power as you can WHEN YOU GENERATE it during the day and store excess in batteries for use a night and you need a much bigger system.

One thing I never considered was solar going from $5.50/watt to about $0.50/watt now. One good thing with NEM3 is that solar is so cheap. I assume the same thing will happen to batteries. They will get better and come down in price. Also, 25 year warranty doe not matter much if the new product costs 1/2 as much and is 2x as good.

What do people think about the LAVO and PICEA systems? They both make hydrogen.

Clean Tech Company | LAVO

A clean tech company changing the way people live with energy.

www.lavo.com.au

Electricity storage based on hydrogen and solar energy

HPS develops a system through which your house will be supplied with sustainable, clean and renewable energy.

www.homepowersolutions.de

If you can use your excess solar to make and store hydrogen for a year, you can be net 0 again. But it is complicated machinery that can break. In NEM1 one good thing was being able to "bank solar" for use in other times of the year. Hydrogen could do that again. Otherwise you have to have enough power for the worst day and then "burn" you extra generation (or turn you plant off).

With hydrogen you can store excess power for a year or more. With batteries you can only store it for a few days (depenting on the battery size).

 

[Hedges]

Better than batteries for utility or for homes is just peak load shaving.
Broadcast signal to bump thermostat settings.
Nobody likes it? Alternative is grid goes down, A/C shuts off, along with refrigerator and lights.
I think this is very high leverage; there are huge peaks and valleys which can get leveled.

NEM 3.0 is like zero-export, but you don't have to implement curtailment.
But import/export measurements are done in such small time slices, your loads that cycle on and off will cost you. Unless you can switch to variable draw loads (VFD on pool pump) and integrate those with CT on utility connection, you need a small battery using CT to attempt zero import, zero export. Very small would work, if high charge/discharge rate.

Since I have pool pump with VFD and analog input, maybe I could set up CT and voltage sensor, PID to vary speed, avoid import and minimize export. Nah, PV is so much greater than pump, I'll just burn electricity all day long instead of giving it away or peanuts. Used to be, I gave it to the grid, where it could help "green" the supply.

Aggregating multiple consumers would get around it. When I was in a mobile home park, we were sub-metered. The park's import/export would be moderated by 100's of homes cycling loads on and off. Situations like that could beat PG&E at their own game. Community Choice Aggregation ought to do the same, but don't think they will (and likely laws/tariffs will prevent it.)

You need to build an array sized to offset 150% of annual consumption (as NEM 3.0 allows) and you need a battery sized to offset average overnight consumption.


All in all, it’s too bad once you factor in how much cheaper solar panels have become since the ‘early days’.

What import/export price ratio did you come up with?

If it is 10:1, cheap panels are around break-even, and 150% hardly puts a dent in it.

Battery to last the night sounds good. No import at night, and will be sufficient to smooth out day.

Thanks! That is easy to understand!


NEM3 and peak/offpeak rates almost the same makes that not work. Now you have to use as much power as you can WHEN YOU GENERATE it during the day and store excess in batteries for use a night and you need a much bigger system.

One thing I never considered was solar going from $5.50/watt to about $0.50/watt now. One good thing with NEM3 is that solar is so cheap. I assume the same thing will happen to batteries. They will get better and come down in price. Also, 25 year warranty doe not matter much if the new product costs 1/2 as much and is 2x as good.

Now that PV panels are 1/10th the price, you can make power for $0.025/kWh.
But because NEM 3.0 credit is so much less than retail charge for power, you would need many times as much PV to produce power you will draw from grid at a different time. Probably can't fit on roof or even in yard.

Used to be a 4:1 difference on/off peak. The schedules I see are only a few percent different. Doesn't even begin to make up for low export credit.

https://www.pge.com/pge_global/common/pdfs/rate-plans/how-rates-work/Residential-Rates-Plan-Pricing.pdf

I think only batteries, or use-it-don't-lose-it as power is produced (which ideally means variable or staircase step loads) could make financial sense.

 

[Calvin98]

What import/export price ratio did you come up with?
If it is 10:1, cheap panels are around break-even, and 150% hardly puts a dent in it.

You don't agree with the 150%?
Is it 150% of the KWH?

I think only batteries, or use-it-don't-lose-it as power is produced (which ideally means variable or staircase step loads) could make financial sense.

Would that not be essentially the same thing as all Californians (or those who can afford it) going "off -grid"? What about the rest of the people?

Maybe "the man wants his money" regardless of who makes the power or who uses it or when they use it?

 

[Hedges]

You may be allowed to install enough panels to produce 150% of your consumption.
But if export credit is 25% or 10% of retail, your credit only lets you import 37% or 15% of usage for free. You have to pay for the rest.
Works for summer A/C and pool & irrigation pumping, not much else.

Yes, batteries while connected or disconnecting would leave the rest of the people to sleep in the bed CPUC made.
But winter heating could be an issue. Especially if $100 gas bills go to $1000 and more. (I wouldn't be surprised if that price increase is engineered to "decarbonize" the economy. Sell the gas to Europe and raise cost in the U.S. until everybody makes the switch. But can you imagine the burden on poor people to pay the higher gas rates or electric heating costs?)

It is unfair to poor people that rich people put in PV and use the grid (at night, when underutilized) without paying for it. Poor people subsidize the rich.
Therefore, net metering is done away with.
Due to low credit for export vs. import, rich people buy batteries and stop using the grid entirely.
Poor people then only have to subsidize themselves. The rich pay their own way.

Under net metering, rich people exported surplus power to the grid during times of peak demand (middle of afternoon, the Elephant's Back.) That reduced the need for utility to expand generation and transmission; they only had to supply the lower Duck's Head. This saved the utility, and rate payers, money. But it did mean rooftop PV got a free ride, in exchange for their subsidy of the grid.

Perhaps something between NEM 2.0 and 3.0 would actually be fair, with utility paid for the use of wires to carry rooftop PV from a producer to A/C of a consumer 200' or 2 miles away. Then we rich people could continue to help keep cost of power down and lights on.

What may happen next is a fee for reducing power consumption or disconnecting. Just as consumers who move to Community Choice Aggregation have to pay fees. And decommissioning of nuclear power plants would fall on the remaining poor consumers but not the rich departing consumers who in the past used the power they generated.

 

[fafrd]

What import/export price ratio did you come up with?

I used the chart from the CPUC decision:



Export credit in the middle of the day when utility doesn’t want it is only $0.025/kWh and overnight off-peak consumption rates are $0.19, so a ratio of 19/2.5 = 7.6.

This means export of 7.6kWh you could not consume or store over summer months will offset consumption of 1kWh of off-peak consumption over winter months when even an array sized at 150% of annual consumption will not be sufficient to generate a full 24-hour’s worth of consumption during winter months.

If it is 10:1, cheap panels are around break-even, and 150% hardly puts a dent in it.

I’m not sure what you mean by this. My logic is as follows:

An array sized at 100% generates approximately 100% of daily consumption in Spring and Fall, 150% of daily consumption over summer, and 50% of daily consumption over winter.

Sized at 150% changes that to 150% over Spring and Fall, 225% in Summer, and 75% in winter.

You’ll export the excess 125% in summer and the excess 50% in spring and fall and you will consume the missing 25% in winter.

The 50% + 125% + 50% of 3-month consumption you export in Spring, Summer and Fall will only be credited at 1/7.6th off-peak winter consumption rates, so 225% / 7.6=29.6% of 3-month consumption.

Since you only had a 25% gap to cover over winter months, the 29.6% export credit will be sufficient to offset wintertime consumption costs.

This model assumes flat average consumption. Higher consumption over summer months will work out even better; higher consumption over winter months will not work out as well.

Battery to last the night sounds good. No import at night, and will be sufficient to smooth out day.

Exactly. Store only the excess generation you can use while the sun is not generating enough power to offset consumption.

Now that PV panels are 1/10th the price, you can make power for $0.025/kWh.

Precisely. The much lower cost of solar power production coupled with the right to generate 150% of annual consumption (and the fact that today’s panels are at least 150% if not 200% as powerful as panels installed in NEM1.0 systems 20 years ago) translates to more power for less money in the same area as early NEM1.0 pioneers enjoyed.

That savings will need to be put towards a modest-sized ESS system to make it all pencil out.

But because NEM 3.0 credit is so much less than retail charge for power, you would need many times as much PV to produce power you will draw from grid at a different time. Probably can't fit on roof or even in yard.

Not if you have an overnight-sized ESS. Winter is the only season when an array sized at 150% will not generate enough daily power to offset daily (24hr) consumption.

After you calculate what that gap will be (25% by my rough estimates), you can then calculate the value of your export credits from Spring, Summer and Fall.

Then you can see how much of an annual bill you will be facing annually, subtract the 12-month Minimum Monthly Charge of $180 ($15/month) to see how badly you are getting ‘screwed.’

The key is that the CPUC left the Annual Trueup in place. The utilities were pushing for Monthly Trueup an if the CPUC has agreed to that, it would have been much, much worse.

 

[HuntersCrackpipe]

Am I correct in thinking that this means removing the panels and inverter and replacing with new panels and inverter? AC wires, mounts, etc. can be reused? Plus whatever you need to meet new code liek RSD devices if installed on roof? Do you need RSD (rapid shut down) on top of pole mounts?

They just said the old system needed to be removed otherwise adding another system alongside it is considered an expansion/upgrade and you remain on your original PTO period. I would assume wiring and racking if still compatible with current solar equipment should be fine to re-use, plus how the hell would they know you re-used the wiring and racking unless the racking is all chewed up? idk anything about RSD, my system doesn't even have that or an AC disconnect it's probably cause it's old (2007) and predates some codes, I'm not really sure.

 

[HuntersCrackpipe]

Exactly. Store only the excess generation you can use while the sun is not generating enough power to offset consumption.

Precisely. The much lower cost of solar power production coupled with the right to generate 150% of annual consumption (and the fact that today’s panels are at least 150% if not 200% as powerful as panels installed in NEM1.0 systems 20 years ago) translates to more power for less money in the same area as early NEM1.0 pioneers enjoyed.

That savings will need to be put towards a modest-sized ESS system to make it all pencil out.

Not if you have an overnight-sized ESS. Winter is the only season when an array sized at 150% will not generate enough daily power to offset daily (24hr) consumption.

After you calculate what that gap will be (25% by my rough estimates), you can then calculate the value of your export credits from Spring, Summer and Fall.

But isn't NEM 3 basically trash for someone with an EV and a long commute trying to charge overnight? my understanding is under NEM 3 you will be billed for all use overnight since you did not produce, so if you have a 150 mile commute to work and back for instance, you will pull roughly 50 kWh overnight at the overnight rate of .19 or .24 whatever it is, then in the daytime say you have a 12 kw system that only produces 50 kWh during the day and the house used 20, you are net negative 20 kWh that day so you pay for 20 kWh, 50 the overnight rate and the other 20 based upon the rate for each hour you used more than you produced. Unless you have $50k to $75k in batteries then going solar under NEM 3 is a complete waste of money whereas NEM 2 you essentially use the grid as your battery getting 1 for 1 credit for what you produce... am I tracking?

 

[Calvin98]

They just said the old system needed to be removed otherwise adding another system alongside it is considered an expansion/upgrade and you remain on your original PTO period. I would assume wiring and racking if still compatible with current solar equipment should be fine to re-use, plus how the hell would they know you re-used the wiring and racking unless the racking is all chewed up? idk anything about RSD, my system doesn't even have that or an AC disconnect it's probably cause it's old (2007) and predates some codes, I'm not really sure.

Right. Makes sense to reuse some of the old stuff. What are you plans? Remove old and install new now? How and where do you go to PGE and tell them that you want to remove the old system and do a new system? We have a disconnect that is next to the meter. Reverse current devices I think are new and required now but only cost $30 each. Hedges said you only needed them for rooftop mounts. Not sure if you need them for top of pole mounts.

 

[Calvin98]

But isn't NEM 3 basically trash for someone with an EV and a long commute trying to charge overnight? my understanding is under NEM 3 you will be billed for all use overnight since you did not produce, so if you have a 150 mile commute to work and back for instance, you will pull roughly 50 kWh overnight at the overnight rate of .19 or .24 whatever it is, then in the daytime say you have a 12 kw system that only produces 50 kWh during the day and the house used 20, you are net negative 20 kWh that day so you pay for 20 kWh, 50 the overnight rate and the other 20 based upon the rate for each hour you used more than you produced. Unless you have $50k to $75k in batteries then going solar under NEM 3 is a complete waste of money whereas NEM 2 you essentially use the grid as your battery getting 1 for 1 credit for what you produce... am I tracking?

Good question! We also just got a Tesla. Luckily we can do some charging at home during the day. Charging at night under NEW 3 seems like a very bad idea. Too bad Tesla can't do vehicle to grid charging like the Ford F150 can. Then you'd have your 80-100+ kwh battery ready. Still trying to figure it all out. Of course I still don't know if we get to keep our NEM1 "forever" or if we will get bumped out some day soon. Neighbors are at 23 years and still on NEM1.

 

[nifty-stuff.com]

PG&E escalated my question to "leadership" whoever that is. I referenced the NEM 2.0 legacy provisions in the following document (page 26):

https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_NEM2.pdf

PG&E confirmed that if you are NEM 1.0 and want to start NEM 2.0 with a 20 year "grandfathering" period you must remove the original system, and submit your new application for the new system as a "new generation facility" as opposed to "upgrading existing generation facility" in the portal. If you do not remove the old system it will be considered an add-on system and you will be moved to NEM 2.0 for the remainder of your original period from your initial PTO date. By adding another system that exceeds 10 percent of the residential electric generating facilities rated capacity you are automatically moved to NEM 2.0 for the remainder of your NEM period, if you do not exceed 10% then you stay on NEM 1.0 for the remainder of your period. I have to remove an old 2 kw system from 2007 and then install the new 12 kw system in order to go to NEM 2.0 for 20 years. PG&E will tell you that adding a new system alongside your existing system starts a new NEM 2.0 period for 20 years, they tell the solar companies the same thing so I can't blame them, but that is clearly not the case and was clarified when I escalated the issue.

This is SUPER helpful, thanks!

It sure would be GREAT if this was clearly spelled-out / written somewhere official that customers could review and reference!

So, it's pretty clear that going from NEM 1 to NEM 2 (especially extending for another 20 years) is ideal when compared to NEM 3?

 

[Hedges]

Oh yeah. Getting 100% credit for exported power instead of 10% to 25% is a big deal.

If you only need to save power for a day or two, not until winter, batteries could accomplish that even if on NEM 3 (and there may be some kickbacks they offer to entice you.)

Whether remove/install is the thing to do may depend on how close your system is to complying with current codes and NEM 2.0
That means Rule 21, arc-fault, RSD, fireman access (and places to hack holes in roof.)
Also, whether your property has violations you'd rather not invite an inspector to see.

I see for you ("installed May 2010") it's about 8.5 years vs. 20 years.
Batteries will mature in that time. Saving summer power for a rainy day will only occur through net metering.
Gas and electric rates (and reliability) could change dramatically. I haven't seen electric as competitive with gas, even considering heat pump. But I won't be surprised if gas rates are artificially elevated to make us do someone's bidding. In that case, 20 years of net metering will help.

 

[Calvin98]

Whether remove/install is the thing to do may depend on how close your system is to complying with current codes and NEM 2.0
That means Rule 21, arc-fault, RSD, fireman access (and places to hack holes in roof.)

Can you expand?
RSD = rapid shut down device. On each roof mounted panel you need one of these, cost about $30 each. Do you need RSD for ground mounts?
arc fault = new solar breaker?
Rule 21 =? Seem like it is a 300 page doc. Any way to condense it? What changed with NEM 2?

You might also have to downsize your main breaker for the 120% rule? i.e. 200A service can do max 40A solar?