Assuming you pay $0.12/KWh, can you ever come out ahead going full offgrid?

Redundancies are my passion.

It's up there with my number one: OVERKILL! ^^

timselectric said:

Redundancies are my passion.

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Is it are passion or our ocd that drives us to be that way?

I build a lot of custom one off control systems. And I always ask myself. What if this happens, or that happens? How will the system handle it? And is that acceptable?

Nobodybusiness said:

More assumptions.

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I said "if". I assumed nothing. If the example doesn't apply to you doesn't mean it's a bad example. You take my comments way too personally as if I insulted you in some way because you feel that sweat equity is free and going 100% off grid is the only way to skin a cat even if you could buy grid power for $0.12/kWh.

I can tell you, if someone said I can lock in $0.12/kWh for the next 10 years I would not have put solar on my roof today. Again, this is *my* take.

Nobodybusiness said:

There are also several Benefits outside of Monetary.

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Benefits to what?

Having your own 100% off-grid solution? Sure! Absolutely. There is also a ton of cost that goes with it but as always, people are far more biased to demonstrate the benefit of their actions and the cost of their inaction vs. doing the other way around.

Doing the install yourself? Sure, there are benefits if it gives you pleasure, it's a fulfilling experience, or it gives you bragging rights on a message board that "I did it!". Again, there are just as many non-monetary costs such as time away from your children (preemptively, I assume nothing, only applies *if* you have children and *if* you like to spend time with them), taking the time away from something possibly even more emotionally fulfilling. It's called opportunity cost. Look it up.

Nobodybusiness said:

Just remember this is a DIY forum

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This is a fair statement but having seen the questions posted I'd say there is probably just as many "aided" installs here as "DIY".

rodrick said:

Knowing I will never be without power more than a couple of minutes and having no power bills monthly is “ priceless “

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I bet if I told you "Hey, I'm willing to give you $1M but there is a chance that you would be without power for a few hours every year", you'd take that offer.

There is most definitely a price for the inconvenience unless you're in an iron lung..... And even then....

Full off-grid, if you have the option to be on-grid is NEVER a good investment and definitely not at $0.12/kWh. It's called rate of diminishing returns. Anyone who tells you otherwise is fooling you and themselves.

Might be if you can have hydro power 365 days/year.
Especially if just rotating machinery, no electronics.

But PV, with my estimates of solar panel, battery, inverter, balance of system costs, hardware alone adds up to that. With labor, more likely to total $0.20 to $0.50/kWh.

Living in the boondocks most of my life you learn to fix stuff and build stuff, hiring it out isn’t a option when service calls start a $500.00 just to show up

GregTR said:

I bet if I told you "Hey, I'm willing to give you $1M but there is a chance that you would be without power for a few hours every year", you'd take that offer.

There is most definitely a price for the inconvenience unless you're in an iron lung..... And even then....

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Tell that to the people of buffalo ny who froze to death just recently or the people in Florida after a hurricane or the California residents due to fire potential, lack of grid power or burned out services due to fire
me having control of my physical plant water, electric, heat is priceless I personally feel that security is far more important than cash on hand those dollars don’t last long in a fire place trying to keep warm

$0.11 Kwh
Fully off grid
ROI under 10 years

I live near one of the most famous earthquake faults in the country, we are overdue for a big earthquake. Having electricity if everything is down for awhile is worth it, California electric rates will continue to creep higher and higher so the price of an off grid setup is not that bad compared to what it costs for grid power.

GregTR said:

But if you have a cranky wife, no kids and you treat the solar install as a getaway from the world's trouble the math could be different.

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There is a definate draw for some people (myself included) to get their hands dirty and have something productive come out the end of it. It's that rare endorphin hit that is so difficult to get from work or a boring/miserable home life. I call it "Mental Health Work" to get the hipsters off my back. ?

rodrick said:

Tell that to the people of buffalo ny who froze to death just recently or the people in Florida after a hurricane or the California residents due to fire potential, lack of grid power or burned out services due to fire
me having control of my physical plant water, electric, heat is priceless I personally feel that security is far more important than cash on hand those dollars don’t last long in a fire place trying to keep warm

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Sure, hindsight is 20/20. But going forward we all make educated guesses on our possible risk and possible cost/benefit of our (in)actions.

I can tell you if someone would tell me they give me $1M to pull the PV off the roof and be 100% reliant on the grid, I'd take that offer all day any day.

Prepping for the worst possible outcome has its price. And at one point you just have to say enough is enough be it with a 30 kWh battery and a grid-tied system or 200 kWh of batteries, two diesel generators and three inverters with two running and a third one in standby.

I bought a generator even though the odds of me needing one are very slim and it cost $5k. But I was willing to spend that money to eliminate that risk in my life. Others might look at that as frivolous spending that could have done something better, maybe even for me, definitely for the world as a whole.

I am absolutely not a prepper, I'm 100% city slicker and most of my power related choices were financial in nature.

But to bring it back to the original topic, the question was whether full off-grid makes sense at $.12/kWh grid power and the answer remains a resounding no. The cost of full off-grid 100% of the time for 100% of the contingencies does not make financial sense. You can get 80% of the benefits for 20% of the cost.

WDB said:

I live near one of the most famous earthquake faults in the country, we are overdue for a big earthquake. Having electricity if everything is down for awhile is worth it, California electric rates will continue to creep higher and higher so the price of an off grid setup is not that bad compared to what it costs for grid power.

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Having "some" electricity when the grid is down is something everyone should consider. Having 100% grid independence when there is a grid with a fairly high rate of availability is not the economic choice. And again, let me remind you, just because it worked for you, it has zero bearing on someone in TX with $0.12/kWh.

GregTR said:

Sure, hindsight is 20/20. But going forward we all make educated guesses on our possible risk and possible cost/benefit of our (in)actions.

I can tell you if someone would tell me they give me $1M to pull the PV off the roof and be 100% reliant on the grid, I'd take that offer all day any day.

Prepping for the worst possible outcome has its price. And at one point you just have to say enough is enough be it with a 30 kWh battery and a grid-tied system or 200 kWh of batteries, two diesel generators and three inverters with two running and a third one in standby.

I bought a generator even though the odds of me needing one are very slim and it cost $5k. But I was willing to spend that money to eliminate that risk in my life. Others might look at that as frivolous spending that could have done something better, maybe even for me, definitely for the world as a whole.

I am absolutely not a prepper, I'm 100% city slicker and most of my power related choices were financial in nature.

But to bring it back to the original topic, the question was whether full off-grid makes sense at $.12/kWh grid power and the answer remains a resounding no. The cost of full off-grid 100% of the time for 100% of the contingencies does not make financial sense. You can get 80% of the benefits for 20% of the cost.

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One thing to consider and I’m not sure if it’s very quantifiable, but the dollar gets weaker every year. Cost of solar may or may not come down, but my bet is it will continue to go up and I think utilities will continue to go up.

Another one is how much if any does a solar system add to the value of the house? Where I live, they cannot raise your property taxes on that added value.

Now, can you invest that money somewhere else for a better return? That is a big unknown.

All that I can say is that it is absolutely possible.
Based on your needs, ability, and skill set.
Each person must do their own homework. No one person can say yes or no for everyone else.

I pay 8.1 cents off peak, 19 cents on peak CAD$ (ie 70% of these numbers in USD$), plus a basic delivery charge even if I use zero kWh for the month. It would seem by the numbers this could "never" pay using batteries at all.
However, my business and home are side by side (less than 100 feet apart) I live out in the sticks, where we will have typically 4-6 outages per winter when a storm rolls in and knocks trees on the lines. An outage can be a few minutes, a few hours or a few days! If it's minus 20 that is not a good day.
I have lived in this place for 22 years now, and I can tell you while the winters are not as cold as they used to be, we get bigger and more frequent storms. It is no fun without power for three days. We have two big freezers full of our own food, and it would be a huge loss if this were to thaw. It is unprofitable to have my business down too.
Did I build an off grid solar PV and disconnect from the utility on my road? no way. But with my system I can shift my loads to never pay on-peak rates, and I am good for days of utility outages. Building this out myself I have learned a lot from you guys, and know I can manage. Prior to the PV system, I had grid or a generator - that was it. Two options.
Now I have PV, Batteries, Grid and Generator (in that order) four ways to make power. Five if I count gasoline and propane as two options for the genertor.
If you are the type to always have 4-ways to make a fire, then why not 4-ways to make electricity too?
I never asked myself "what is the payback period" on a pool, or a vacation or insurance.
I know it is easy for some to consider, gee in 30 years we have never had a power outage, but that doesn't mean the next 30 years will be the same. We all know the grid infrastructure in many areas has been slowly left to ruin, all while additional loads added to it, we see failures.
I watch the news like everyone does, and I see that freak snow in Texas, Huricanes in Florida and Louisiana, wildfires in California, droughts, Tornadoes in Kansas, I see Buffalo buried in snow and people froze, then we all see what is happening to those in Ukrane; and wonder if Taiwan or Finnland are next. I don't want to be vulnerable, I want to be as self sufficient as I can be. I have good neighbours and we watch out for each other. That three day storm we all helped each other and shared resources and knowledge, we got by just fine working together. When the power is out for three days, and you are cut off from Comms, you don't know if power will be back on in another day or not, and that affects people. When you have a system that can supply the basics and keep you and your family & neighbours safe, that has value to me beyond measure. As the poster from Ukrane said What is a kWh worth in their situation?
The time to prepare is when you don't need it, the alternative is too late.

OffGridForGood said:

I pay 8.1 cents off peak, 19 cents on peak CAD$ (ie 70% of these numbers in USD$),

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So less than 6 cents USD off-peak?

Even without Solar, wouldn’t you be in the money, just charging your batteries?

When I got started I didn't even have PV, just the batteries and inverter to start. Charged off peak (7PM to 7AM) and used the batteries to power stuff during on peak hours 7AM to 7PM. We actually have three rates, off peak, mid peak and on-peak, but the mid peak and on peak are not much difference. We pay off peak rates all day on Sat Sun and holidays too.
I figure a DIY battery (assuming the 6000 cycles they claim) has a per cycle cost of about 2-3 cents per kWh-cycle, so yeah a good deal for us just in the load shifting (moving power purchased from off-peak to loads run on-peak).
Ultimately this should help the utility with their biggest problem: the infrastructure for generation on-peak is wasted during off peak, and all this attention to EV charging supposedly dooming the system to crash, well I see good reason to charge after 7:00PM in my location at least.
Maybe if more homes had batteries and inverter set ups, we could smooth out the power consumption over the day, as well as being more resilent to short power outages.