"Ford secures battery supplies for 600,000 EVs a year from 2023"

[eXodus]

I don't necessarily mind the heat, it doesn't outright hurt me, like it does some people who are sensitive too it, but you can't commute to an office job and expect to have everybody be pleasant after a 15-30 minute ride in those conditions. We would have to shower when we get there, shower when we get home, shower, shower shower! Plus heat makes people angry, and we don't need more angry people in this world.

In a good designed city you office/work would be 5-10 minutes by foot. Or 2-3 minutes by Bike.
And you would only need to go there 2-3 days a week.

Sure 30 minutes of terrifying Bike ride is nothing you want to do in the heat.

Every one of those companies knew it was coming, they just didn't want to be the first to crack their golden goose egg they already had going.

The Cash Cow and Legacy Asset Problem.
Share holders don't like investment in new things. They want stable predictable returns. Stock Market and Patents are natural enemies of change. (some of that is good, some is not)

 

[Ampster]

EVs are political.

Yes, like anything, EVs can be politicized. My decision to drive EVs for the past ten years was economic. At least for me the decision had little to do with my politics. The same economic reasons drove my decision to put solar panels on my last three homes.

 

[wattmatters]

Supply chains are a mess, no idea if it will make the transition that fast. Not my specialty.

I'd have thought supply chain was a critical component of Energy Economics.

 

[Ampster]

Supply chains are more of an issue in manufacturing than power generation. Vehicle manufacturing involves thousands of parts from hundreds of vendors. Typical power generation uses one type of fuel. Years ago a steam generating plant converted their boilers from fuel oil to natural gas. I suppose one could argue that the Texas winter power outage was a supply chain issue. In that case the supply of natural gas was reduced by failure of the distribution system when the pipes carrying the gas froze.

 

[Danke]

lol

Oslo December 2021 Historical Weather Data (Norway) - Weather Spark

weatherspark.com

Looks fairly similar to Minneapolis. What do 84% of Norwegians know that your brother doesn't?

Minneapolis December 2021 Historical Weather Data (United States) - Weather Spark

weatherspark.com

 

[Miles B]

View attachment 104872

Yeah do you not see where Oslo spends 4 months averaging below 32F on your own graph?

 

[wattmatters]

Supply chains are more of an issue in manufacturing than power generation.

The paradigm has changed.

The transition to a low(er) carbon global economy mean power generation is increasingly reliant on manufacturing and mineral supply for solutions.

Solar PV production and wind turbines and the inverters they use, batteries and other energy storage technology, and of course the various specialist mineral inputs required (lithium, rare earths, cobalt, nickel, aluminium etc). And perhaps if they even make sense, to some extent, SMR manufacturing technology as well. Development of the low emissions hydrogen economy and expansion of pumped hydro to some extent that they represent engineering and environmental challenges.

Supply chains are critical in all these element of energy economics.

Here's a analysis of the issues assessing supply chain risk and impact from the recent International Energy Agency report:


Now consider the supply chain risks for this energy transition when viewed through geographical concentration. Note the amount of red in the charts. That's our reliance on China for processing and manufacturing.



You'll be happy to know that over half of the world's lithium comes from Australia.

Even so, traditional fossil fuel supply chains are also under pressure, not to mention the geopolitical threat to those with a heavy reliance on foreign sources of fossil energy.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[Danke]

Yeah do you not see where Oslo spends 4 months averaging below 32F on your own graph?

And lowest on the curve is ~ 25F, burr, cold. We wear shorts in MN when it gets that warm.


Anyways, real world experience from my brother, cold cut his EV range in half.

 

[wattmatters]

And even more pertinent to this thread is the analysis specific to the global supply chains for EV batteries. Here's another IEA analysis:


Full report here.

 

[Ampster]

Anyways, real world experience from my brother, cold cut his EV range in half.

We all have choices about where we live and what kind of vehicles we drive. Another real world experience is my brother who has two EVs and often drives to the desert to see his grand kids.

 

[OzSolar]

And lowest on the curve is ~ 25F, burr, cold. We wear shorts in MN when it gets that warm.


Anyways, real world experience from my brother, cold cut his EV range in half.

LOL... grew up in IA, still not MN but it was common to be playing little league games in early June with snow drifts still piled up on the outfield fence. Worked in Casper Wyoming for a while. Morning weatherman would give the "bus stop report" and verbatim would say "looks like the kids will be seeing mid teens while they are waiting for the bus so you might want to send a light jacket with them".

Can you provide any more specifics about your brother's situation? What was your brother's daily commute? Rated range of his EV? Battery size of his EV? I'm just a geek for the numbers.

Google revealed this first hit from Drive Electric Vermont. It supports your brothers experience when he was driving temps of ~10f or below.

 

[cs1234]

Anyways, real world experience from my brother, cold cut his EV range in half.

Was he running the heater? We know from our experience with solar power and batteries that resistive loads like heaters are some serious energy suckers. Electric blankets are the answer..

Anyhow, cold winters will either need additional batteries, or onboard/removable fuel based generators so no sacrifices have to be made by the people living there.

 

[eXodus]

I'd have thought supply chain was a critical component of Energy Economics.

Probably I need to specify that sentence. "I don't know Automotive supply chains" I can tell you long stories about the energy supply chain. How much energy it costs to drill for oil for example. How much for a solar panel. When I worked in that industry until 2013 I was on (Power) Grid and HVAC simulation side. How much losses the overhead powerlines have etc. (Did you know that the average power grid losses 10-15% of electric just in transmission? In high load scenarios in hot areas - up to 30%) How many inches of insulation you add to a building.

But I don't know all the components which go into building a car. I'm not well versed in automotive and battery type supply chains. And since it's not my job anymore I'm not keeping up

 

[Danke]

Was he running the heater? We know from our experience with solar power and batteries that resistive loads like heaters are some serious energy suckers. Electric blankets are the answer..

Anyhow, cold winters will either need additional batteries, or onboard/removable fuel based generators so no sacrifices have to be made by the people living there.

I wonder for Large EV SUVs and trucks , if a diesel (or gasoline ) generator could be practical. As they do with locomotives, but only required to be used when battery get low. Large battery plug-in hybrid in an SUV, sign me up.

 

[Danke]

LOL... grew up in IA, still not MN but it was common to be playing little league games in early June with snow drifts still piled up on the outfield fence. Worked in Casper Wyoming for a while. Morning weatherman would give the "bus stop report" and verbatim would say "looks like the kids will be seeing mid teens while they are waiting for the bus so you might want to send a light jacket with them".

Can you provide any more specifics about your brother's situation? What was your brother's daily commute? Rated range of his EV? Battery size of his EV? I'm just a geek for the numbers.

Google revealed this first hit from Drive Electric Vermont. It supports your brothers experience when he was driving temps of ~10f or below.

View attachment 104882

All I know is he had a Mustang Mach-E. Not sure about his driving patterns, he lives in the Twin Cities.

Light jacket in Casper, I remember seeing weather forecast of -60 in Yakutsk, Russia. Weatherman said as it is below -40, schools would be closed. Most children walk to school there, so -40 is apparently their limit. Weak Russians, I delivered newspapers when it was colder than that (well, at least the windchill was)!

 

[cs1234]

I wonder for Large EV SUVs and trucks , if a diesel (or gasoline ) generator could be practical. As they do with locomotives, but only required to be used when battery get low. Large battery plug-in hybrid in an SUV, sign me up.

I can't imagine a generator customized to the purpose wouldn't work well (not perfect). They get to pick the best constant rpm to produce the needed amounts to charge the battery at an ideal charge rate, without having to vary it up and down and all around. Cars/trucks spend a significant amount of time not at top performance demand, idling or cruising. Just like our solar systems and battery setups, they need to be able to cover peak demand, but then it's all base load baby!

Plus, if it's an ev/hybrid that's expected to be plugged in regularly, the expectation would be that the generator/onboard small ICE is an "extender", it still needs to be charged up somewhere or that the "extender" has to just run while it's off to charge it back up ahead of time using fuel.

 

[Hedges]

In a good designed city you office/work would be 5-10 minutes by foot. Or 2-3 minutes by Bike.
And you would only need to go there 2-3 days a week.

We have good designed cities.
Back story of the following is based on real life.

Who Framed Roger Rabbit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

(Good for whom is the question.)

 

[Hedges]

The same economic reasons drove my decision to put solar panels on my last three homes.

How did that work out, economically?
Until recently, GT PV was a long-term investment.
And more likely to detract from resale price than increase it, marketing claims nonwithstanding.

 

[cs1234]

How did that work out, economically?
Until recently, GT PV was a long-term investment.
And more likely to detract from resale price than increase it, marketing claims nonwithstanding.

You guys and your math! Economically he could have just bought beer with the money, and that would have been an even bigger net loss. ?

 

[Hedges]

Seriously - I believe GT PV does work out well given enough time (except maybe for very early adopters paying ca. $10/watt or more.)

But if Ampster has installed systems on 3x previous properties, he kept them a short time or started long ago. So I wonder if payback ever occurred. Did he end up paying a premium for the power he did use, and give remaining value for free to buyer (or even paid buyer to take it?)

I paid $8/W in 2003, got $4/W rebate. I put in a large system, offsetting 100% of power not just highest price tiers.
It probably cost me $0.20/W of the 17 years it operated before I started swapping in other equipment. Maybe break-even with utility rates, and that not counting time value of the money (which could have been invested elsewhere.)

Today, the numbers look far better, with hardware costing $1/W, tax credits 28%, utility rates doubled. But don't worry, PG&E and PUC are trying to correct that.